The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party may win a comfortable majority in the Gujarat Assembly elections, with Congress coming second, said India TV-Matrize final opinion poll. The results of this opinion poll were telecast Monday evening on India TV news channel.
According to the opinion poll, BJP may win a comfortable majority with 109-124 seats in the 182-member Gujarat assembly, while Congress may win 51-66 seats, AAP may win 0-7 seats and 'Others' may win 0-1 seat. Five years ago, in the 2017 assembly elections, BJP had won 99 seats, Congress had won 77 seats and ‘Others’ had won two seats.
Voting percentage wise, the opinion poll says, BJP may get 49.9 per cent, Congress 39.1 pc, AAP may get 7.5 pc and 'Others' may get 3.5 pc votes. In 2017 assembly elections, BJP had got 49.44 pc votes, Congress 42.97 pc and ‘Others’ had got 7.59 per cent votes.
Region wise: In Central Gujarat having 61 seats, BJP may get 43, Congress 17 seats, AAP nil and Others 1 seat. In Saurashtra-Kutch having 54 seats, BJP may get 32 seats, Congress may get 18 seats and AAP may get four seats. In South Gujarat having 35 seats, BJP may get 26, Congress may get 6 seats, and AAP 3 seats. In North Gujarat having 32 seats, BJP may get 15 seats, Congress may get 17 seats and AAP and Others none.
The sample size taken in India TV-Matrize final opinion poll was 45,500 respondents (27,300 males and 18,200 females) spread in 182 assembly constituencies of Gujarat between November 20 and 27. In every assembly constituency, at least 250 respondents were contacted. The margin of error in opinion poll could be plus/minus 5 per cent.
The final opinion poll shows, BJP may get 48 pc scheduled caste votes, 48 pc scheduled tribe votes, 60 pc Kadwa Patel votes, 55 pc Leuva Patel votes, 53 pc OBC votes, 49 pc upper caste Hindu votes and 10 pc Muslim votes. Congress may get 41 pc SC votes, 42 pc ST votes, 31 pc Kadwa Patel votes, 35 pc Leuva Patel votes, 39 pc OBC votes, 40 pc upper caste Hindu votes, and 60 pc Muslim votes.
Asked about their best choice for CM, 44 pc opted for Bhupendra Patel, 8 per cent opted for Congress leader Shaktisinh Gohil, 6 per cent each for AAP leader Isudan Gadhavi and Bharat Singh Solanki, 5 pc for Jagdish Thakore and 3 pc each for Sukhram Rathwa and Arjun Modhwadia.
On Chief Minister Bhupendra Patel’s performance, 40 pc said ‘very good’, 35 pc said ‘average’ and 22 pc said ‘very poor’.
Asked whether they wanted change, 43 pc said they were happy and do not want change, 28 pc said they were unhappy and wanted change, 27 pc said they were unhappy but wanted no change. 2 per cent said, ‘No comment’.
Asked about the topmost issues in this election, 39 per cent said 'Support or Oppose Narendra Modi' will be the topmost issue. Eighteen per cent said Price rise, 10 pc said 'benefit of Centre, State plans' will be the main issue, 8 pc said Unemployment, six per cent said State Govt's performance, 5 pc said farmers’ issues, 4 pc said MLA’s performance, 4 pc said polarization, and 3 pc said Corruption.
Will Narendra Modi become the game changer in elections, 49 per cent said ‘Yes’, 30 per cent said ‘To some extent’, and 19 pc said, ‘it will have no effect’.
Asked who will form the government, 69 per cent said ‘BJP’, 22 per cent said ‘Congress, 3 per cent said ‘AAP’ and 6 pc said, ‘difficult to predict’.
Asked whose election campaign will have maximum effect, 71 per cent said Narendra Modi, 18 per cent said Rahul Gandhi and only six per cent said Arvind Kejriwal.
On Aam Aadmi Party's performance, 58 pc said AAP may not achieve much, 33 pc said AAP will cut into others' votes, and only 4 pc said AAP may form government.
What will save BJP from anti-incumbency? To this question, 46 per cent said 'Narendra Modi', 23 per cent said 'change of non-performing MLAs', 16 pc said 'better election management', 6 pc said 'fielding of strong candidates', and four pc said ‘poll promises’.