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Who will win Karnataka: Factors that will decide fate of 2023 assembly election in state

Assembly poll in Karnataka will be held in a single phase on May 10 and the results are scheduled for May 13, the Election Commission announced on Wednesday.

Edited By: Shashwat Bhandari @ShashBhandari New Delhi Updated on: March 29, 2023 18:15 IST
Karnataka Assembly Elections will be held on May 10.
Image Source : INDIA TV Karnataka Assembly Elections will be held on May 10.

Karnataka Assembly Elections 2023: The Election Commission (EC) on Wednesday announced that the assembly elections in Karnataka will be held on May 10 and the counting of votes is scheduled for May 13. The polling on all 224 assembly seats in the state will be held in one single phase. The current term of the Karnataka assembly will end on May 24.

The BJP is in power in Karnataka and the Congress is the main opposition party. Janata Dal (Secular) is the third largest political force in the state. The main contest in the state is likely to be held between the ruling BJP and the Congress while JDS could play a kingmaker's role if the state ends in a hung assembly.

Big issues that may impact elections in Karnataka

Scrapping of 4 per cent quota for Muslims

The Karnataka government last Friday took two major decisions regarding reservation in jobs and education. With this decision, the government abolished the 4 per cent quota for OBC Muslims and decided to keep them under 10 per cent Economically Weaker Section ( EWS ) category.

The second decision is that this 4 per cent quota has been divided between Vokkaliga and Lingayat communities. Post this decision, the quota for Vokkaliga has been increased from 4 per cent to 6 per cent. The quota for Panchamasali, Veerashaivas and other Lingayat categories has been increased from 5 per cent to 7 per cent. At the same time, the Muslim community will now get reservation under the EWS quota. 

This decision by the Karnataka government may become a big issue in the upcoming election.

Other issues that may impact election 

  • Maharashtra border dispute
  • Communal tension
  • Tipu sultan
  • Savarkar
  • Hijab
  • Corruption

How many seats in which region?

  • Hyderabad Karnataka - 40
  • Kittur Karnataka - 44
  • Coastal Region - 19
  • Old Mysore - 66
  • Central Karnataka - 27
  • Bengaluru - 28

Karnataka Assembly Elections 2013 and 2018 Results

In 2018 assembly elections in Karnataka, out of 224 seats, Congress got 80 seats, BJP got 104 seats while JDS bagged 37 seats. Earlier in 2013, Congress got 122 seats while BJP and JDS bagged 40-40 seats.

India Tv - Karnataka assembly election 2023

Image Source : INDIA TVA look at Karnataka results of 2018 and 2013

India Tv - Karnataka assembly election 2023

Image Source : INDIA TVWhich party got how much vote share in Karnataka 2013 and 2018 elections.

Cast factor in Karnataka

Despite all the issues in Karnataka, there is one such factor that may decide the outcome of the elections. That 'X' factor in Karnataka is the Lingayat community. It is believed that whoever gets the support of the Lingayat community, the chances of that party to win the elections are more. Lingayats constitute 14 per cent of Karnataka's total population, which directly impacts almost 110 assembly seats.

  • Muslim - 12.92%
  • Dalit - 19.5%
  • OBC - 16%
  • Lingayat - 14%
  • Vokkaliga - 11%
  • Kuruba - 7%

Religion factor in Karnataka

According to the 2011 census, Karnataka has 12.92 per cent Muslim population, 84 per cent Hindus and 1.84 per cent Christians.

  • Hindu - 84%      
  • Muslim - 12.92%
  • Christian - 1.87%
  • Others - 1%

ALSO READ | Karnataka poll battle 2023: Stage set for BJP Vs Congress Vs JD-S three-cornered fight

ALSO READ | Karnataka Elections 2023: Voting on May 10, results on May 13 l Full Schedule

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