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BJP may win Madhya Pradesh Assembly Election with clear majority: India TV-CNX Opinion Poll

Madhya Pradesh will vote on November 17 in single phase election and the counting of votes is scheduled for December 3. Ahead of the polls, India TV-CNX conducted an opinion poll to gauge the mood of the voters and predict which party is ahead in the state.

Edited By: India TV News Desk New Delhi Updated on: November 04, 2023 0:41 IST
Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan and
Image Source : PTI Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan and former CM Kamal Nath

New Delhi: The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) may retain power in Madhya Pradesh by winning this month's Assembly elections with a clear majority of 119 out of a total of 230 seats, says India TV-CNX Opinion Poll. The results of the survey were telecast today on the news channel. Polling in Madhya Pradesh will be held on November 17.

The opinion poll projections show the BJP may win 119 seats, compared to the 109 seats it had won five years ago in the 230-member Assembly. The main opposition party Congress may win 107 seats, compared to 114 seats it had won five years ago, says the survey. 'Others' including independents are likely to win four seats. In the last elections, seven seats were won by independents and local parties.

Vote share projections show the BJP may get 46.33 per cent, the Congress may get 43.24 per cent, and 'Others' may get 10.43 per cent. In the 2018 elections, the BJP got 41.02 per cent, the Congress got 40.89 per cent, and 'Others' got 18.09 per cent votes.

Region-wise seat projections

Region-wise, the India TV-CNX poll projections show:  

  • In Baghelkhand having 51 seats, the BJP may win 29 seats, the Congress may win 21 seats and 'Others' may win one seat.
  • In Bhopal having 24 seats, the BJP may win 16 seats leaving the remaining eight seats to the Congress.
  • In Chambal having 34 seats, the Congress may win 19 seats, leaving 15 seats to the BJP.
  • In Mahakaushal having 47 seats, the Congress may win 26 seats, the BJP may win 19 seats, and 'Others' may win two seats.
  • In Malwa having 46 seats, the BJP may win 28 seats and the Congress may win 18 seats.  
  • In Nimar having 28 seats, the Congress may win 15 seats, the BJP may win 12 seats, and the remaining one seat may go to 'Others'.

Preference for Chief Minister

The survey findings show Madhya Pradesh CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan leading with 42.5 per cent of respondents wishing him to continue as the Chief Minister. Chouhan is closely followed by state Congress chief Kamal Nath with 39.61 per cent of respondents showing their preference for him as the next CM. BJP leader and Union Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia is in third position with 11.47 per cent, Congress leader Digvijaya Singh with one per cent, and 'Others' being preferred by 5.42 per cent of respondents.

Key findings

  • 52.39 per cent of BJP supporters said they would vote for Narendra Modi's face, while 42.06 per cent said they would vote for Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s face. 5.55 per cent had no opinion. This question was put to BJP supporters only.
  • 48.77 per cent of voters said the BJP has shown wisdom in candidate selection, while 39.52 per cent said the Congress showed wisdom in selecting candidates.
  • 35.06 per cent of voters said they liked Rahul Gandhi's poll campaign among Congress leaders, while 34.85 per cent said Kamal Nath. 13.5 per cent opted for Priyanka Gandhi Vadra.
  • 47.01 per cent of voters said they trusted BJP's welfare schemes (guarantees), while 40.66 per cent said Congress.
  • 46.99 per cent of voters said the Congress party's promise of a caste-based census was merely an election gimmick, while 42.18 per cent of voters said it was a genuine initiative. 10.83 per cent had no opinion.
  • 52.91 per cent of voters said the BJP has more internal conflicts, while 36.7 per cent of voters said the Congress has more infighting.
  • Among Hindu voters, 30.71 per cent said, they would go to Ayodhya immediately after the inauguration of the Ram Temple, while 41.03 per cent of voters said 'later'.
  • 47.45 per cent of voters said PM Narendra Modi should support Israel, while 35 per cent of voters said PM Modi should support Palestine. 17.55 per cent chose can't say.
  • 51 per cent of voters said Israel is right, while 38.39 per cent of voters said Palestine is right. 10.61 per cent of voters said can't say.
  • Among Hindu voters, 66.9 per cent of voters said they were scared after watching a gruesome video of Hamas attacks on Israel, while 23.45 per cent of voters said 'No'.

The opinion poll was carried out by CNX among 14,520 respondents (7,490 males and 7,030 females) across 132 randomly selected constituencies. The age group ranged from 18 to 60 years old. The results are subject to a margin of error of 3 per cent.

ALSO READ | Madhya Pradesh Elections: A look at rebel leaders in BJP and Congress who may make a dent in vote banks

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