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BJP may just touch majority mark in MP Assembly polls in a cliffhanger: India TV-CNX Opinion Poll

A total of 11,500 respondents participated in India TV-CNX opinion poll survey. Voting in all 230 Assembly seats in Madhya Pradesh will be held in one single phase on November 17. The counting of votes is scheduled for December 3.

India TV News Desk Edited By: India TV News Desk New Delhi Updated on: October 20, 2023 6:40 IST
Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan and
Image Source : INDIA TV Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan and former CM Kamal Nath

New Delhi: The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) may emerge as the single largest party and may just touch the half-way mark of 116 seats in the Madhya Pradesh Assembly election to be held next month on November 17, says India TV-CNX Opinion Poll. The results of the survey were telecast today on the news channel.

The opinion poll projections show the BJP may win 115 seats, compared to the 109 seats it had won five years ago in the 230-member Assembly. The main opposition party Congress may win 110 seats, compared to 114 seats it had won five years ago, says the survey. ‘Others’ including independents hold the key, and they are likely to win five seats. In the last elections, seven seats were won by independents and other parties including the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Samajwadi Party (SP).

Vote share projections show the BJP may get 44.38 per cent, the Congress may get 42.51 per cent, and 'Others' may get 13.11 per cent. In the 2018 elections, the BJP got 41.02 per cent, the Congress got 40.89 per cent, and 'Others' got 18.09 per cent votes.

Region-wise Seat Projections  

Region-wise, India TV-CNX poll projections show:

  • In Baghelkhand having 51 seats, the BJP may win 31, the Congress may win 19 and Others may win one seat.
  • In Bhopal having 24 seats, the BJP may win 16 seats leaving the remaining eight seats to the Congress.
  • In Chambal having 34 seats, the Congress may win 22 seats, leaving 12 seats to the BJP.
  • In Mahakaushal having 47 seats, the Congress may win 26 seats, the BJP may win 19 seats, and Others may win two seats.
  • In Malwa having 46 seats, the BJP may win 25 seats, the Congress may win 20 seats, and the remaining one seat may go to Others.
  • In Nimar having 28 seats, the Congress may win 15 seats, the BJP may win 12 seats, and the remaining one seat may go to Others.

Preference for Chief Minister

The survey findings show Shivraj Singh Chouhan leading with 44.32 per cent of respondents wishing him to continue as Chief Minister. Chouhan is closely followed by Madhya Pradesh state Congress chief Kamal Nath with 38.58 per cent of respondents showing their preference for him as the next CM. BJP leader and Union Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia stands in third position with only 9 per cent, Congress leader Digvijaya Singh with 1.52 per cent, and ‘Others’ being preferred by 6.58 per cent of respondents.

Key Findings

  • A whopping 65.32 per cent of respondents said there should be a caste-based census in Madhya Pradesh, while 20.63 per cent were not in favour. 14.05 per cent said Can’t Say.
  • 27.4 per cent of respondents said unemployment was the biggest issue in Madhya Pradesh, while 21.05 per cent said development was the biggest issue. 19.11 per cent said inflation was the biggest issue. 14.42 per cent said Hindutva was the biggest issue, while 7.23 per cent said corruption was the biggest issue. 
  • 46.83 per cent of respondents rated Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s performance on a scale between 8 and 10, while 40.67 per cent rated him on a scale between 0 and 4. 12.5 per cent rated his performance on a scale between 5 and 7. 
  • 37 per cent of respondents said they were fully satisfied with the work done by their MLA in the last five years, while 32.12 per cent said they were fully dissatisfied. 
  • Asked which government performed better in Madhya Pradesh, 42.43 per cent said the BJP government, while 37.02 per cent said the Congress government.
  • On a question asked from women voters only, 47.3 per cent of women said, Chouhan's Laadli Behna Yojana will have an impact on the election, while 36.5 per cent said ‘No’.
  • Asked which party's welfare scheme (guarantees) was good, 43.62 per cent opted for the BJP while 42.15 per cent opted for the Congress. 
  • 44.75 per cent of voters said they were dissatisfied with the state government’s handling of the Covid pandemic crisis, while 35.61 per cent of voters said they were satisfied. 
  • A whopping 53.25 per cent of respondents said the BJP’s decision to field central ministers and MPs in the election will give an advantage to the party, while 37.18 per cent said 'No'. 

The opinion poll was carried out by CNX among 11,500 respondents (5,758 males and 5,742 females) across 115 randomly selected constituencies. The respondents were selected randomly for a sample population encompassing diverse professions, including cobblers, tailors, barbers, daily wage labourers, petty shopkeepers, migrant labourers, registered medical practitioners, auto and taxi drivers, and real estate dealers, among others. The age group ranged from 18 to 60 years old.

ALSO READ | Madhya Pradesh polls: Shivraj Singh Chouhan drops massive hint on BJP's CM face, will he retain spot? READ

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