Bihar Assembly Election 2020 is all set to take place from October 28. The assembly polls will be held in three phases. The first phase of election will take place on October 28 in 71 constituencies, 16 districts; the second phase on November 3 in 94 constituencies, 17 districts and the third phase on November 7 in 78 constituencies, 15 districts. The counting of votes will be held on November 10.
As just a couple of days left when Bihar votes, it is after 15-20 years that the state is witnessing such a close election that even political pundits are not sure about who will ultimately form the government in the state.
In the meanwhile, India TV has done an analysis of all the opinion polls on the Bihar Election and has come up with a Super Opinion Poll. According to the Super Opinion Poll, once again Bihar may witness a Nitish Kumar-led government. In 2020 election, NDA may get 139-143 seats while the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) may get 87-96 seats. On the other side, LJP, which parted ways with NDA alliance in the state may get 2-6 seats while other parties may grab 5-9 seats in the forthcoming election.
Bihar Election 2020: Super Opinion Poll
- NDA may get 139-143 seats
- Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) may get 87-96 seats.
- LJP may get 2-6 seats.
- Others may get 5-9 seats.
Talking about the most favourble figure for the Chief Minister's post, then, according to Super Opinion Poll, it is Nitish Kumar who is still being preferred as the man suitable for the job.
As per the Super Opinion Poll, 32 per cent people feel that Nitish Kumar is the most suitable leader for Chief Minister's post. After Nitish Kumar, it is Tejashwi Yadav as 27 per cent people feel he should be the CM. While only 4 per cent people feel that Chirag Paswan or Sushil Modi are better options for Bihar Chief Minister's post.
Bihar Super Opinion Poll: Who is most favourable CM
- Nitish Kumar: 32 per cent
- Tejashwi Yadav: 27 per cent
- Chirag Paswan: 4 per cent
- Sushil Modi: 4 per cent
According to Super Opinion Poll, the NDA may get 40 per cent vote share in the upcoming election, the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) may get 33 per vote share while contesting the Bihar election lone, the LJP may have to satisfy with only 6 per cent vote share. Other parties may get 21 pe cent vote share.
Bihar Super Opinion Poll: Vote share
- NDA may get 40 per cent
- Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) may get 33 per cent
- LJP may get 6 per cent
- Others may get 21 per cent
Talking about caste arithmetic in Bihar, then there is 14.4 per cent Yadav vote, 7.1 per cent is Baniya vote, 5.7 per cent is Brahman vote, 5.2 per cent is Rajput vote, 4.7 per cent is Bhumihar vote, 1.5 per cent is Kayastha vote, 4 per cent is Kurmi vote, 6.4 per cent is Kori vote, 16 per cent is SC and 16.9 per cent is Muslim vote.
According to Bihar's Super Opinion Poll, 66 per cent of upper caste people may vote for the NDA, while only 26 per cent may choose Mahagathbandhan. Talking about Backward Castes, then 42 per cent may vote for NDA while 30 per cent may choose Mahagathbandhan. 23 per cent of people belonging to Schedule Castes may vote for the NDA while 33 per cent of them may vote for Mahagathbandhan. Also, 20 per cent Muslims may choose NDA in the forthcoming election while 71 per cent of them may vote for Mahagathbandhan.