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Has Trump chosen the right enemy?

On January 20, American business tycoon Donald J. Trump will assume charge of the 45th president of the United States of America. His rise to the post coincides with discussions across US media on the

Amit Palit Amit Palit Washington Updated on: January 20, 2017 15:54 IST
File photo of Donald Trump
File photo of Donald Trump

On January 20, American business tycoon Donald J. Trump will assume charge of the 45th president of the United States of America. His rise to the post coincides with discussions across US media on the news of Russia’s role in rigging the US elections. 

US intelligence services believe Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered cyber attacks on the Democratic National Committee (DNC), Hillary Clinton’s campaign and other political organizations, in an attempt to influence the election in favour of Donald Trump. 

Acting upon these findings, the outgoing president Barack Obama imposed new sanctions on Russia and expelled 35 Russian diplomats. Putin, on the other hand, has refused to engage in tit-for-tat diplomacy. He said his government would instead wait to see how relations developed under the administration new president. 

There have been ample feelers of a Trump-Putin bonhomie in the making. Donald Trump described Putin in a tweet as “very smart”. 

Whether this is a first step towards better relations between US and Russia, only time will tell. The relations between the two superpowers have deteriorated since the annexation of Crimea by Russia. The Syrian war where Russia supported Assad, whereas the US supported the rebels only added fuel to fire. 

While the Obama administration painted Russia as their biggest enemy, one will have to wait and watch whether the dawn of the new era can see Trump and Putin can walk towards each other without compromising their interests and ignoring the bitterness.

While the scenario unfolds as Trump takes charge, one must remember that it is economic might and not military prowess that define power in today’s world.  Russia’s economic future is bleak, especially if energy prices remain low. Sanctions from US and EU have already dealt significant damage to its economic interests. The scenario makes it unreal for the US, an economic superpower, to consider Russia as a threat.

On the other hand, there is one country that poses a real and potent threat to US, and that is China. China has transformed itself from a closed economy in the 1970s to a manufacturing and exporting giant over the years. The Chinese economy overtook the U.S. economy in terms of GDP based on PPP. However, the difference between the economies in terms of nominal GDP remains large with China's $11.3 trillion economy.

The Chinese economy has long been known for its strong growth figures - over 7 per cent in recent years. The U.S. economy, on the other hand, remains the largest in the world in terms of nominal GDP. The $18.5 trillion U.S. economy is approximately 24.5 per cent of the gross world product.

Numbers aside, China is a threat to US militarily too. With a population of 1.3 billion to draw from, more than four times the population of the US, China has over 2.3 million in active service, with an additional 1.1 million as reserves and military police. 

The US military has about 1.4million active service members. A combination of foreign acquisition and domestic innovation by cyber espionage has led to a huge push in modernization for the Chinese Army.

China's navy regularly makes headlines by expanding its defensive perimeter outwards throughout artificial islands in the South China Sea. There have been predictions of China overtaking the US in air power by 2030. The Chinese are developing fifth generation aircraft, the J-20 and J-31, which are said to rival the US' coming F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. 

The Su-35 deal with Russia, along with a 2014 agreement to sell S-400 surface-to-air missile will increase its capability manifold. China has large space assets, including 70 military satellites used for communications, navigation, positioning and intelligence.

The threats posed by China to the US are real and credible, in comparison to Russia. During his campaign, Donald Trump adopted a softer approach towards Russia and dealt with China more aggressively. 

He said in an interview that he might lift sanctions if Russia can help the US fight terrorists and other in goals important to the US. Trump in December spoke to Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen which even went against the One China policy. 

There have been good indications that Trump realises what the future holds and is acting upon it. Rex Tillerson’s nomination as the next secretary of state has been seen as a pro-Russian approach by Donald Trump. Though Tillerson took a hard line against Russia, it is known that he is close to Vladimir Putin and has business interests in Russia too. Not without reason then that he had received the Order of Friendship from Russia in 2013.

Unlike Barak Obama, it appears that Trump has identified who US’ real threat or enemy is. However, US foreign policy is controlled by Pentagon and CIA, and their anti-Russia statements do not leave much to be read into. In such a scenario, Trump will be watched for his ability to transform the US approach and its policies towards Russia. Moreover, how far he can match to his campaign rhetoric against China will also be keenly observed.

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