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How can Pakistan qualify for World Cup 2023 semifinal after crucial win against New Zealand? Scenarios

Pakistan recorded a thrilling 21-run win against New Zealand on the DLS method and jumped to fifth position in the World Cup 2023 points table with eight points. They face bottom-placed England in their last game and can secure a semifinal qualification with a win.

Written By: Sumeet Kavthale @sumeetkavthale New Delhi Published on: November 04, 2023 22:40 IST
Babar Azam and Kane Williamson in Bengaluru on November 4,
Image Source : AP Babar Azam and Kane Williamson in Bengaluru on November 4, 2023

Pakistan's comeback continued as they recorded another crucial win to boost their chances for World Cup 2023 semifinal qualification on Saturday, November 4. After losing four consecutive games, Babar Azam's Pakistan are now knocking on the door for the semifinal with eight points from eight games.

New Zealand suffered their fourth straight defeat despite scoring 401 runs, their biggest ODI World Cup total. The rain-hit game witnessed a sensational 63-ball hundred from the veteran Fakhar Zaman and another fifty from Bazar that helped Pakistan earn a 21-run win on the DLS method at Bengaluru's M Chinnaswamy Stadium.

Pakistan's World Cup 2023 semifinal scenarios:

With four wins in eight games, Pakistan will not ensure a semifinal qualification if they beat England in their final group stage game. They can reach 10 points but Australia, New Zealand and Afghanistan can also finish with 10 or more points. Pakistan have to depend on other results and need to ensure a healthy positive net run rate as well.

However, Pakistan will ensure an automatic qualification if they beat England, Sri Lanka beat New Zealand and both Australia and South Africa defeat Afghanistan, which seems a strong possibility considering the current form.

What if New Zealand beat Sri Lanka to earn 10 points? Pakistan need to defeat England by 130-plus runs in their last game and hope for big defeats for Afghanistan in their last two games against Australia and South Africa. 

Pakistan's chances will be very slim if they fail to overcome England's challenge as qualifying with eight points seems an impossible task. They can pray for heavy defeat(s) for New Zealand and Afghanistan, as the Kiwis maintain a better net run rate compared to Asian teams.

Updated World Cup points table after Pakistan vs New Zealand match:

Teams Matches played Won Lost Tied No Result Points Net Run Rate (NRR)
India 7 7 0 0 0 14 2.102
South Africa 7 6 1 0 0 12 2.290
Australia 7 5 2 0 0 10 0.924
New Zealand 8 4 4 0 0 8 0.398
Pakistan 8 4 4 0 0 8 0.036
Afghanistan 7 4 3 0 0 8 0.330
Sri Lanka 7 2 5 0 0 4 -1.162
Netherlands 7 2 5 0 0 4 -1.398
Bangladesh 7 1 6 0 0 2 -1.446
England 7 1 6 0 0 2 -1.504

Pakistan World Cup Squad: Abdullah Shafique, Fakhar Zaman, Babar Azam (c), Mohammad Rizwan (wk), Iftikhar Ahmed, Saud Shakeel, Agha Salman, Shaheen Afridi, Usama Mir, Mohammad Wasim Jr, Haris Rauf, Shadab Khan (vc), Imam-ul-Haq, Mohammad Nawaz, Hasan Ali

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