A nationwide survey conducted by India TV-CNX for next year’s Lok Sabha polls clearly indicates that the ‘Mahagathbandhan’ alliance of non-BJP parties, if it at all materializes in Uttar Pradesh, can reduce the ruling party BJP’s strength from the state in Parliament by almost half.
According to the survey, in Scenario 1, if Samajwadi Party, BSP, RLD and Congress combine in UP, they can win in 49 seats, and the NDA’s strength could be reduced to only 31. The break-up for Mahagathbandhan: BSP 18, SP 21, Congress 8, RLD 2. Break-up for NDA is BJP 30, Apna Dal 1.
In Scenario 2, if Samajwadi Party, BSP and Rashtriya Lok Dal, combine in UP, they can win in 33 seats, leaving two seats to Congress, while the NDA’s strength could be reduced to 45 (BJP 44 and Apna Dal one). The break-up for Mahagathbandhan: BSP 15, SP 16, RLD 2.
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If the ‘Mahagathbandhan’ of non-BJP parties does not materialize in UP, the BJP may win 55 out of total 80 seats, BSP 9, SP 9, Congress 5, RLD one and Apnal Dal one. Vote share in that case could be: BJP 39.19 pc, BSP 20 pc, SP 20.55 pc and Congress 11.91 pc.
It may be recalled that in the 2014 LS polls, BJP had won 71, SP had won 5, Congress had won 2 and Apna Dal had won 2 seats in UP out of a total of 80 seats.
In West Bengal, which has 42 Lok Sabha seats, the survey projections are very clear and the ruling Trinamool Congress is set to dominate the LS polls. TMC is projected to win 27 seats, BJP 8 seats, Left Front 5, and Congress two seats.
Watch: India TV-CNX survey for 2019 LS polls in UP
In the 2014 LS polls, TMC had won 34 seats, BJP 2, Left Front 2 and Congress 4 seats. Vote sharewise, TMC’s vote share from dip from 39.79 pc in 2014 to 36.2 pc this time, while BJP’s vote share may rise from 17.02 pc in 2014 to 27.77 pc this time.
In Odisha, which has 21 Lok Sabha seats, the ruling Biju Janata Dal may get 16 seats, leaving the remaining five seats to BJP.
In the 2014 LS polls, BJD had won 20 seats leaving the remaining seat to BJP. Congress could not win a single seat. Vote sharewise, Biju Janata Dal’s share may register a slight dip from 44.77 pc in 2014 to 44.00 this time, while that of BJP may register a jump from 21.88 pc in 2014 to 28.53 pc this time. The Congress may get a vote share of 21.67 pc this time, but may not win any seat.
Watch: India TV-CNX survey for 2019 LS polls in Odisha
Today’s telecast by India TV was focussed only on UP, West Bengal and Odisha, while the results for Punjab, Haryana and Uttarakhand will be telecast next Thursday (November 22). Results for some more states will be telecast on November 29.
Watch: India TV-CNX survey for 2019 LS polls in West Bengal
The nationwide India TV-CNX opinion poll survey was conducted between October 25 and November 12 in 171 parliamentary constituencies across six states. The survey was conducted randomly on 17,100 voters (8732 males and 8368 females) in the age group 18-60 years.
Those interviewed includes people from the lower strata of society like cobblers, tailors, barbers, daily wage labourers, migrant workers, petty shopkeepers, mechanics to middle and higher strata including medical practitioners, real estate dealers, etc. The error percentage has been kept at +/- 2.5 pc.