The weather is likely to add an unexpected twist to the 80th Independence Day celebrations this year, with the national capital likely to witness rain during the morning hours of August 15. As Prime Minister Narendra Modi prepares to unfurl the Tricolour at the Red Fort and address the nation, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a generally cloudy sky with spells of very light to light rain. The forecast suggests that rain could begin as early as the night of August 14 and continue into the morning of Independence Day. While the showers are not expected to be particularly intense during the main morning period, the possibility of rainfall could influence the weather conditions around the Red Fort during the national ceremony.
According to the IMD, Delhi is likely to remain generally cloudy on August 15. A spell of very light to light rain, measuring around 5 mm, is expected between 4 am and 6 am, with a 70 per cent probability. Another spell of very light rain, estimated at around 2 to 3 mm, could occur between 6 am and 9 am. The probability of this spell has been pegged at 60 per cent. Rain may not be limited to the morning. The weather department has also forecast another spell of around 3 mm during the afternoon to evening hours, again with a 60 per cent probability.
Rain likely to begin on August 14 night
Skymet Weather's Mahesh Palawat said rainfall activity in Delhi could start from the night of August 14 and continue into the morning of August 15. "Today and tomorrow, there will be a dry spell as the monsoon trough is lying to the south and the low-pressure area is positioned above, over northwest Odisha and West Bengal. Later, the monsoon trough is expected to move northwestwards, and around August 15, a low-pressure area is likely to develop over southeast Uttar Pradesh and northern Chhattisgarh," Palawat said, as per news agency PTI. He said the changing position of the monsoon system could bring more widespread rainfall to the national capital around Independence Day.
"At the same time, the axis of the monsoon trough is expected to lie over the Indo-Gangetic plains, including the Delhi region. Because of this, widespread light to moderate rainfall is likely over Delhi, particularly during the morning hours of August 15. Rainfall activity can begin from the night of August 14 and continue into the morning of August 15. After the morning hours on August 15, some isolated places may continue to receive rainfall," he added.
Haryana, Punjab and western UP also likely to receive rain
The possibility of rain is not restricted to Delhi. The IMD has forecast fairly widespread to widespread rainfall across Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and Punjab during August 14 and 15. West Uttar Pradesh is also likely to receive widespread rainfall on August 15. The weather department has further predicted isolated heavy rainfall in the region between August 14 and August 18. This means several parts of the northern plains could remain under the influence of active monsoon conditions during the Independence Day period.
Delhi temperatures likely to remain moderate
Despite the expected rainfall, temperatures in Delhi are likely to remain relatively comfortable for mid-August. The maximum temperature is forecast to stay between 32 and 34 degrees Celsius, while the minimum temperature could remain between 23 and 25 degrees Celsius.
According to the IMD, minimum temperatures are likely to remain below normal by 1.6 to 3.1 degrees Celsius at most places. Meanwhile, maximum temperatures are expected to remain close to the seasonal average, with departures ranging from minus 1.5 to plus 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Winds may pick up during the afternoon
Wind conditions are also expected to change through the day. During the morning, winds are likely to blow predominantly from the northwest at speeds of up to 10 kmph. Their speed could increase to around 20 kmph from the northwest during the afternoon. The winds are then expected to weaken to around 18 kmph and shift towards the west during the evening and night.
The combination of cloudy skies, intermittent showers and moderate temperatures could keep Delhi's weather relatively pleasant compared with hotter and more humid conditions.
What could the weather mean for the Red Fort ceremony?
The possibility of rain comes just as the national capital prepares for its 80th Independence Day celebrations. The Red Fort will be the centre of the country's main Independence Day ceremony, where Prime Minister Narendra Modi will unfurl the national flag and address the nation. If the predicted showers occur during the morning, they could provide a different weather backdrop to the ceremony. However, the forecast currently points mainly towards very light to light rainfall during the early hours, with some isolated rain possible later in the day. The final weather conditions will depend on how the monsoon system evolves closer to August 15.
(With PTI inputs)
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