The Meteorological Department of the United Kingdom (UK) has warned that the El Niño that is developing in the Pacific Ocean will be an 'unprecedented' event and one of the largest in 'living memory' that could cause extreme weather conditions and a significant increase in global temperatures.
In its report published August 21, UK's Meteorological Department said this year's El Niño will make 2027 likely the "warmest year on record" and become another year "to temporarily exceed +1.5 C above the preindustrial period".
It said it arrived on the conclusion after analysing the historical data and computer simulations.
"I have never seen an El Niño signal this intense in our forecasts," Professor Adam Scaife, Head of Long Range Forecasting at the Met Office, warned. "A typical El Niño leads to an equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature rise of between 1-2 degrees, with 2oC being a really big event. This implies that if the forecast is accurate - and other forecast systems show similar extreme values - then 2026 will far exceed our recent experience of El Niño and its worldwide climate influences."
A likely impact on India?
As of now, the El Niño is growing towards its peak in winter, the Met Office said, while warning that its affects would also be felt in southern African and northeast Australian regions, and not just in tropical areas. As it continues to grow, India's summer monsoon will likely get impacted, it said, noting that the country is already "running well below normal rainfall".
This falls in line with what the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in April 13-14 long-range forecast, noting that the country will receive a below-normal southwest monsoon rainfall as a whole. Although, the monsoon activity has picked up in India and several regions are witnessing widespread rainfall.
UK's Met Office has said that it will continue monitoring and analysing the situation, even as experts have warned that India could witness strong heatwaves in the coming years.
"This large El Niño is a reminder that natural variations in the climate system are also at play, adding to the stresses of climate change," Professor Stephen Belcher, Chief of Science and Technology at Met Office, said.
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