"There are no permanent friends or permanent enemies in politics, only permanent interests." Over the years, a lot has changed in Indian politics, but this old saying has always stayed relevant. Perhaps that's why the electoral battle in Uttar Pradesh remains open to everyone, despite political alliances appearing to have nearly been finalised before the 2027 battle in the state.
That may be why Samajwadi Party (SP) president Akhilesh Yadav took a jibe at Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) chief Jayant Chaudhary last month. The SP and the RLD had contested the 2022 Uttar Pradesh elections. However, the RLD joined hands with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on March 24, joining the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) after the Bharat Ratna was conferred on former Prime Minister Chaudhary Charan Singh.
The 'chavanni' jibe of Akhilesh
Back in 2022, the alliance with RLD had helped SP increase its influence in western Uttar Pradesh, also known as the 'Jatland', but for Akhilesh, it was his party that turned a 'chavanni' (25 paise) into a rupaiya (Re 1).
"Humne chavanni ka rupya bana diya tha, tab bhi humein chhod kar chale gaye wo (We turned a 25-paise coin into a rupee, still they abandoned SP and went away)," the former Uttar Pradesh chief minister said at a programme of the Lodh community on August 16 in Lucknow.
Akhilesh didn't name anyone, but his jibes were aimed at Jayant and his RLD. In 2022, the SP-RLD bonhomie was the talk of the town, and Jayant was even elected to the Rajya Sabha through SP's support. However, differences began to emerge between them before the 2024 parliamentary elections and the RLD eventually joined the NDA; later, Jayant was given a ministerial position after the alliance returned to power at the Centre.
Jayant's 'ABCD' response
Initially, Jayant avoided a direct confrontation with Akhilesh, but on August 21, he finally responded to the SP president and warned him that such an "arrogance would lead to downfall".
"You could have taken my name if you wanted to use cheap words in this political battle; it wouldn't have been an issue. Targeting the Jat community and saying 'we taught them ABCD'? I've seen this arrogance up close, and I believe such behaviour only brings downfall," the union minister said in Hindi on X (formerly Twitter).
The war of words only escalated between them with the murder of Haryanvi Jat singer Ankit Balyan, with Akhilesh terming it an attack on the entire agrarian community across Uttar Pradesh. Later, Akhilesh also spoke on the telephone with Ankit's family, as he targeted Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath for failing to safeguard law and order in the state.
The importance of Jats in UP
Jats account for only 2 per cent of Uttar Pradesh's total population, and around 99 per cent of them are concentrated across 26 districts of western Uttar Pradesh, covering 136 assembly constituencies and 27 Lok Sabha seats. Despite their significantly smaller population, they can easily influence the results in 35 to 40 seats; however, some political pundits believe their broader influence remains in 50 seats.
Akhilesh and the SP know this, which is why they have been trying to increase their influence among the Jats. However, some in the SP believe that attacking Jayant directly could be a risk, and at the local level, the party's Jat faces such as Harendra Singh Malik, Lok Sabha member from Muzaffarnagar, are trying to avoid it and doing damage control at the ground level.
Why does RLD remain a key to conquering the west UP?
The RLD has traditionally been a Jat-dominated party. In the 2007 Uttar Pradesh elections, it secured 61 per cent of Jat votes. In the 2012 polls, this number was 45 per cent, according to a survey by Lokniti-CSDS. Despite losing its Jat vote base in the 2017 and the 2022 assembly elections, the RLD remains a force to reckon with in western Uttar Pradesh.
This is precisely why the BJP wants to keep the RLD on its side, and at the same time, the SP, too, would be more than happy to have Jayant's party rejoin its alliance.
An SP-RLD reunion?
However, sources in the RLD believe that it is extremely unlikely that Jayant's party would return to the SP fold. Speaking to India TV Digital, an RLD insider said there is "no chance" that the party would rejoin hands with the SP, ruling out any possibility of an alliance. In fact, they stated the party remains an integral part of the NDA and the BJP-led alliance would return to power after the 2027 Uttar Pradesh elections.
In the 2022 polls, the RLD contested on 33 seats, winning eight of them, but this time, the party wants more seats, sources told India TV. However, the BJP is unlikely to concede that many seats to the party and it would be interesting to see how the seat-sharing formula is derived.
Jayant backs Yogi
This was also reiterated by Jayant on September 3 in a 'Swabhiman Rally' at Gochar Inter College in Rampur Maniharan in Saharanpur when he said the NDA was a "nationalist alliance" and would remain strong, while the opposition grouping kept changing its name and composition. He had also invoked former Prime Ministers Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Chaudhary Charan Singh, saying they were among those who had first built the NDA.
In his remarks, the RLD national president also lauded Adityanath over law and order, and said the chief minister has a "soft heart" for farmers. "When MLAs meet him over sugarcane prices and other farmers' issues, Yogi ji says that he too is a farmer," he had said.
The political field in Uttar Pradesh now remains open, and it would be interesting to see who gains an upper hand: the BJP-led NDA or the SP-led alliance. Whatever the outcome, the RLD is surely expected to play a crucial role in the next Uttar Pradesh elections slated for February or March next year. And as parties battle hard for the Jat votes, Jayant will certainly remain in the spotlight in the days to come.
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