Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar may retain power again, with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) projected to win within a range of 147 to 167 seats, far ahead of the magic mark of 122 in the 243-member Assembly, says the India TV-Matrize Exit Poll, the results of which were telecast on the channel today. Counting will take place on November 14.
The Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance), forged by Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Congress and other small parties, including the Left parties, is projected to win within a range of only 70-90 seats, say the exit poll projections.
Prashant Kishor's fledgling new party, Jan Suraaj, may get only zero to two seats, while Asaduddin Owaisi's AIMIM may win only two to three seats, says the exit poll projection. 'Others' may win zero to 5 seats.
Seat Share Projections
In the NDA, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) may win 65 to 73 seats, the Janata Dal-United (JDU) may win 67-75 seats, the Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) may get 4-5 seats, Chirag Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party-Ram Vilas (LJP-RV) may win 7-9 seats, and the Upendra Kushwaha-led Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) may win 1-2 seats.
In the Mahagathbandhan, the RJD may win 53-58 seats, the Congress may win only 10-12 seats, the CPI(ML) Liberation may win 5-8 seats, and the CPI and the CPI(M) may win 2-3 seats each. Mukesh Sahani's Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) may win 1-4 seats.
Voting Percentage
The National Democratic Alliance, comprising the BJP, the Janata Dal (United), the Hindustani Awami Morcha, the Lok Janshakti Party-RV and the Rashtriya Lok Manch, may get 48 per cent of votes, while the Mahagathbandhan, comprising the Rashtriya Janata Dal, the Congress, the CPI-ML Liberation, the CPI, the CPI-M and the Vikassheel Insaan Party, may get 37 per cent of votes. The AIMIM may get only 1 per cent of votes, while the Jan Suraaj Party may get 5 per cent, and 'Others' may get 9 per cent of votes.
Region-wise Seat Projections
- Angika: Out of a total of 30 seats, the NDA may win 20-23, the Mahagathbandhan may win 7-10, and others 0-1.
- Bhojpur: Out of a total of 67 seats, the NDA may win 37-42 seats, the Mahagathbandhan may win 20-25 seats, and others 0-2.
- Magadh: Out of a total of 51 seats, the NDA may win 30-35 seats, the Mahagathbandhan may win 17-22 seats, and others may get 0-1 seat.
- Mithilanchal: Out of a total of 71 seats, the NDA may win 50-55 seats, the Mahagathbandhan may win 18-23 seats, and others may get 0-1 seat.
- Seemanchal: Out of a total of 24 seats, the NDA may win 10-12 seats, the Mahagathbandhan may get 8-10 seats, and others may get 2-3 seats.
Total: Out of a total of 243 seats, the NDA may get 147-167 seats, the Mahagathbandhan may get 70-90 seats, and others may win 2-8 seats.
Gender-wise Vote Share
The NDA may get a mammoth 65 per cent share of female votes and 52 per cent of male votes.
The Mahagathbandhan may get 36 per cent male votes and 27 per cent female votes.
Jan Suraaj Party may get 6 per cent male votes and 6 per cent female votes.
Others may get 6 per cent male votes and 2 per cent female votes.
Caste, Religion-wise Vote Share Projections
The NDA may get 69 per cent of General, 51 per cent of OBC, 49 per cent of SC and 10 per cent of Muslim votes.
The Mahagathbandhan may get 15 per cent of General, 39 per cent of OBC, 38 per cent of SC and 78 per cent of Muslim votes.
Jan Suraaj Party may get 7 per cent of General, 4 per cent of OBC, 5 per cent of SC and 4 per cent of Muslim votes.
Others may get 9 per cent of General votes, 6 per cent of OBC votes, 8 per cent of SC and 8 per cent of Muslim votes.
Methodology
Random sampling quantitative data collection was made in assembly constituencies through field survey and the CATI method with a margin of error of plus/minus 3 per cent on November 6 and November 11 (dates of polling). The sample size was 66,087 voters, out of which 31,722 were men and 19,165 were women. The youngest voters were 15,200 in number.
