After causing a global stir earlier this year, asteroid 2024 YR4 has been declared safe for Earth as it might not impact the land, but as per the news research by the European Space Agency (ESA), it is stated that the asteroid might touch and harm the Moon.
The astronomers are keeping a close eye on the asteroid, which carries around a 4 per cent chance of colliding with the Moon on December 22, 2032.
No threat to Earth, but the Moon is still at minor risk
What is Asteroid 2024 YR4?
Discovered on 27 December 2024 by the ATLAS telescope in Chile, this asteroid was measured to be somewhere between 53 and 67 metres in diameter, which is relatively big enough to make an impact if ever it collides with the Earth. It was considered lethal for the planet, having the capability to devastate a city easily.
But by March 2025, enough data proved that the Earth is out of the risk zone. However, the new research is stating that the Moon might be impacted.
Why it might hit the Moon?
While the asteroid’s path is reportedly avoiding the Earth, its final trajectory shows a 4 per cent chance of hitting the Moon, with 96 per cent certainty that it will not.
Researchers are working regularly to evaluate and calculate the distance and chances of impact.
Why wasn’t it detected earlier?
The asteroid is reported to be approaching the Earth from the sun-facing side, which is a blind spot for ground-based telescopes. This further highlights the vulnerability that led to the Chelyabinsk meteor incident in Russia in 2013.
How does ESA plan to fix this?
ESA is working on a new space telescope called NEOMIR, which will launch in the early 2030s. It will monitor asteroids in the Sun’s direction using infrared sensors, which would have detected YR4 a month earlier.
What if it hits the Moon?
According to ESA’s Planetary Defence Head Richard Moissl, if YR4 strikes the Moon, it could leave a visible crater which could be visible from the Earth.
Although such impact will become a concern as humans plan lunar bases, since the Moon lacks an atmosphere which could protect it against space rocks.
As India and the world prepare for more missions to the Moon, asteroid tracking and planetary defence will be playing a major role in ensuring both Earth and lunar safety in the coming decades.
Inputs from the European Space Agency (ESA)