Most exit polls on Wednesday (April 29) projected a victory for the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly Election 2026, with at least three agencies estimating that Chief Minister MK Stalin's party could secure between 122 and 145 seats. However, the Axis My India has offered a contrasting projection, suggesting that Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) could win 98-120 seats in its debut election. If this projection holds, TVK could emerge as a decisive force in the final outcome.
Tamil Nadu has a total of 234 seats, with the magic mark being 118.
Tamil Nadu Poll of Polls
| Exit Poll | DMK+ | AIDMK+ | TVK | Others |
| Axis My India | 92-110 | 22-32 | 98-120 | 8 |
| P-MARQ | 125-145 | 65-85 | 16-26 | 1-6 |
| Matrize | 122-132 | 87-110 | 10-12 | 0-6 |
| Peoples Pulse | 125-145 | 65-80 | 18-24 | 2-6 |
| Chanakya Strategies | 145-160 | 50-65 | 0 | 18-26 |
| Poll of polls | 130 | 66 | 32 | 6 |
85.10% voter turnout in Tamil Nadu
Polling for the 234-member Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly Election 2026 was held in a single phase on April 23, with results set to be declared by the Election Commission on May 4. The election has witnessed a direct contest between the INDIA bloc, led by the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), and the NDA, spearheaded in the state by the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK).
The state recorded an estimated overall turnout of 85.10 per cent, the highest since Independence. According to the Election Commission, the overall turnout in the Chennai district was 83.68 per cent. Perambur saw the highest voter turnout, with 2.03 lakh votes polled (89.74 per cent), followed by Kolathur with 1.82 lakh (86.12 per cent). The counting of votes is scheduled for May 4.
What happened in the 2021 Tamil Nadu polls?
In the 2021 Tamil Nadu polls, the DMK swept the polls, winning 133 seats on its own to end the AIADMK combine's rule. Its alliance partners, the Congress and the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK) won 18 and four seats, respectively. The AIADMK's tally, on the other hand, reduced from 134 to 66. The Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) won five seats, while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) bagged four constituencies. Later, Stalin was sworn in as the chief minister.
Also Read: Tamil Nadu Exit Poll 2026: Vijay's TVK may play spoiler in DMK vs AIADMK contest
Also Read: Tamil Nadu Exit Poll: DMK-led alliance to retain power with a clear majority, predicts Matrize
