The latest exit poll projections for the Kerala Assembly elections 2026 suggest a modest shift in the BJP-led NDA’s position in the state. While the alliance remains a distant third in a largely bipolar contest, there are early signs of incremental gains in both vote share and seats.
Polling for the elections was held on April 9, with Kerala recording a voter turnout of over 78 per cent, one of the highest in recent years. The state witnessed a three-way contest between the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF), the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), and the BJP-led NDA.
NDA vote share sees marginal rise
According to the Matrize exit poll, the BJP-led NDA is likely to secure 13.40 per cent vote share in Kerala. This marks a slight increase from the 12.41 per cent vote share the alliance recorded in the 2021 Assembly elections.
Despite that vote share in 2021, the NDA had failed to win a single seat. The current projections, however, suggest a possible change in that outcome.
Seat projections indicate limited but notable gains
The Matrize exit poll projects the NDA to win 3–5 seats in the 140-member Assembly. While still a small number, it would represent a breakthrough compared to its zero-seat tally in the previous election.
At the same time, the broader contest remains dominated by the two major alliances. The UDF is projected to win 70–75 seats, while the LDF is estimated to secure 60–65 seats, indicating a tight race between the two.
Bipolar contest continues to define Kerala politics
Kerala has traditionally seen a direct contest between the LDF and the UDF, with power alternating between the two alliances over the years. The 2026 election was no different, with both alliances focusing on key constituencies such as Thiruvananthapuram, Thrissur, Palakkad, Kannur, Kozhikode North, Ernakulam and Nemom.
The LDF, led by Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, is seeking a third consecutive term, while the UDF is aiming to return to power, banking on anti-incumbency and local factors.
Final results on May 4
Exit polls offer only an indication of trends and are not official results. The final outcome of the Kerala Assembly elections 2026 will be declared on May 4, when counting of votes takes place across the state.