The Today's Chanakya exit poll on Thursday (April 30) projected a clear victory for the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam-led alliance in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly Election 2026, indicating that the ruling bloc is likely to return to power.
DMK+ to get 125 seats
According to the projections, the DMK alliance is expected to win 125 seats in the 234-member Assembly. In a significant development, Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) is predicted to secure 63 seats, potentially emerging as the main opposition force in the state.
Meanwhile, the NDA, led in Tamil Nadu by the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), is projected to win 45 seats, the exit poll suggests.
Tamil Nadu has a total of 234 seats, with the magic mark being 118.
What other exit polls predict?
However, the Axis My India on Wednesday offered a contrasting projection, suggesting that Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) could win 98-120 seats in its debut election. If this projection holds, TVK could emerge as a decisive force in the final outcome.
Tamil Nadu Poll of Polls
| Exit Poll | DMK+ | AIDMK+ | TVK | Others |
| Axis My India | 92-110 | 22-32 | 98-120 | 8 |
| P-MARQ | 125-145 | 65-85 | 16-26 | 1-6 |
| Matrize | 122-132 | 87-110 | 10-12 | 0-6 |
| Peoples Pulse | 125-145 | 65-80 | 18-24 | 2-6 |
| Chanakya Strategies | 145-160 | 50-65 | 0 | 18-26 |
| Poll of polls | 130 | 66 | 32 | 6 |
Polling for the 234-member Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly Election 2026 was held in a single phase on April 23, with results set to be declared by the Election Commission on May 4. The state recorded an estimated overall turnout of 85.10 per cent, the highest since Independence.
In the 2021 Tamil Nadu polls, the DMK swept the polls, winning 133 seats on its own to end the AIADMK combine's rule. Its alliance partners, the Congress and the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK) won 18 and four seats, respectively. The AIADMK's tally, on the other hand, reduced from 134 to 66. The Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) won five seats, while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) bagged four constituencies. Later, Stalin was sworn in as the chief minister.
Also Read: Tamil Nadu Poll of Polls: Four exit polls give edge to DMK, Axis My India predicts Vijay's win
Also Read: Tamil Nadu Exit Poll 2026: Vijay's TVK may play spoiler in DMK vs AIADMK contest
