Iran is bracing for an unprecedented political transition following the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, triggering intense manoeuvring within the country and among regional and global stakeholders. Khamenei, who ruled Iran from 1989, was the Middle East's longest-serving head of state, and his death marks only the second leadership change since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
The supreme leader wields ultimate authority over Iran's key decisions, including war, peace and the country's controversial nuclear programme. Potential candidates range from hard-liners committed to confrontation with the West to reformists who seek diplomatic engagement.
Until a successor is chosen, a provisional governing council comprising President Masoud Pezeshkian, judiciary chief Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei and senior cleric Ayatollah Ali Reza Arafi is overseeing affairs. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said a new leader would be selected early this week.
The appointment will be made by the 88-member Assembly of Experts, a panel of Shiite clerics legally mandated to name a successor swiftly. Its members are elected by the public but vetted by the Guardian Council. Khamenei had major influence over both clerical bodies, making it unlikely the next leader will mark a radical departure.
Here are the top contenders
Mojtaba Khamenei
The son of Khamenei, a mid-level Shiite cleric, is widely considered a potential successor. He has strong ties to Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard but has never held office. His selection could prove awkward, as the Islamic Republic has long criticized hereditary rule and cast itself as a more just alternative.
Ayatollah Ali Reza Arafi
Arafi is a member of the provisional government council. The senior Shiite cleric was handpicked by Khamenei to be a member of the Guardian Council in 2019, and three years later he was elected to the Assembly of Experts. He leads a network of seminaries.
Hassan Rouhani
Rouhani, a relative moderate, was president of Iran from 2013 to 2021 and reached the landmark nuclear agreement with the Obama administration that US President Donald Trump scrapped during his first term. Rouhani served on the Assembly of Experts until 2024, when he said he was disqualified from running for reelection. Rouhani criticized it as an infringement on Iranians’ political participation.
Hassan Khomeini
Khomeini is the most prominent grandson of the founder of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. He is also seen as a relative moderate, but has never held government office. He currently works at his grandfather’s mausoleum in Tehran.
Ayatollah Mohammed Mehdi Mirbagheri
Mirbagheri is a senior cleric popular with hard-liners who serves on the Assembly of Experts. He was close to the late Ayatollah Mohammad Taghi Mesbah Yazdi, a fellow hard-liner who wrote that Iran should not deprive itself of the right to produce “special weapons,” a veiled reference to nuclear arms. During the COVID-19 pandemic, Mirbagheri denounced the closure of schools as a “conspiracy.” He is currently the head of the Islamic Cultural Center in Qom, the main center for Islamic teaching in Iran.
Also Read: Israel-US-Iran War Live: Fire at US embassy in Riyadh as blast rocks Mideast as conflict widens
Also Read: Netanyahu thanks PM Modi for 'standing with Israel' as Middle East conflict rages on