Monsoon update: Even though the India Meteorological Department is unable to give a tentative date for the arrival of the monsoon in Kerala, it said that a depression over the southeast Arabian Sea, south of Porbandar in Gujarat, is likely to move northwestward and intensify into a cyclonic storm. This is expected to critically influence the advance of the monsoon towards the Kerala coast, IMD added.
Meanwhile, Meteorology and Climate Change, Skymet has predicted that a depression has formed over the Southeast Arabian Sea and is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm by tomorrow morning (Wednesday). “A depression has formed over the Southeast Arabian Sea and is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm by tomorrow morning. By June 9, it may turn into a very severe cyclone," says Mahesh Palawat, Vice President Meteorology and Climate Change, Skymet.
In a bulletin, the Met office said the depression lay about 920 km west-southwest of Goa, 1,120 km south-southwest of Mumbai, 1,160 km south of Porbandar and 1,520 km south of Karachi, Pakistan, at 5:30 am.
"It is likely to move nearly northwards and intensify into a cyclonic storm during the next 24 hours over east-central Arabian Sea and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea. These powerful weather systems in the Arabian Sea spoil the advancement of the monsoon deep inland. Under their influence, the monsoon stream may reach coastal parts but will struggle to penetrate beyond the Western Ghats," it said.
Earlier, private forecasting agency Skymet Weather said the monsoon onset over Kerala may happen on June 8 or 9, but it is expected to be a "meek and mild entry". "The southwest monsoon is likely to arrive within this bracket. Onset criteria require stipulated rainfall on two consecutive days over Lakshadweep, Kerala and coastal Karnataka. Accordingly, the spread and intensity of rainfall may match these requirements on June 8 or June 9. However, the onset of the annual event may not be loud and sound. It may only make a meek and mild entry to start with," the private weather forecasting agency said.