The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) appears on course to form the next government in Bihar with a commanding lead. Early counting trends indicate that the coalition is ahead in 201 of the 243 Assembly seats, giving it a strong advantage as counting continues.
In contrast, the Mahagathbandhan is lagging far behind, leading in only 36 seats, a performance that marks a significant setback for the RJD-led alliance. While these numbers may still fluctuate as more rounds of counting are completed, the broad trend so far suggests a decisive edge for the NDA.
Explaining three emerging scenarios in ongoing vote count
Congress vs AIMIM vs HAM vs RLM
One of the interesting subplots in this election is the fight among Congress, AIMIM and Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) and Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) for dominance. Congress is ahead in only 1 seat, AIMIM in 6 seats, and HAM is also in 5 seats. Upendra Kushwaha-led RLM is leading in 4 seats.
RJD vs LJP: A parallel competition
A second notable trend is the direct comparison between RJD and Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (LJP).
RJD leads in 24 seats, while LJP is not far behind, leading in 20 seats.
This is particularly significant because the RJD has traditionally been a major player in Bihar politics, whereas the LJP—despite its smaller footprint—is making unexpected inroads. The close numbers highlight the LJP’s impact on the electoral landscape this year.
BJP vs JDU: The fight to become the state’s largest party
The most crucial internal battle within the NDA is between its two key partners: the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Janata Dal (United). BJP is performing extremely well, leading in 95 seats, while JDU is ahead in 84 seats. However, this is NDA's best performace in the political history of Bihar.
RJD’s historically poor showing
Another major takeaway from the results so far is the RJD’s steep decline. The party seems headed toward one of its worst performances ever. Its previous low point came in 2010, when it won just 22 seats.
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