The opinion poll by Matrize has projected a close contest in the upcoming West Bengal Assembly elections, suggesting that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) could pose a strong challenge to Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee. According to the survey, the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) is likely to win between 140 and 160 seats, while the BJP is projected to secure 130 to 150 seats, indicating a tightly fought election. Other parties are expected to win between 8 and 16 seats, the poll suggests.
Matrize Opinion poll (294 seats)
- TMC: 140-160 seats
- BJP: 130-150 seats
- Others: 08-16
Vote share and region-wise breakup
As per the Matrize Opinion poll, the TMC is likely to get 43% of votes in Bengal, while the BJP may receive 41% of votes in the state. The Others are likely to get 16% of the votes.
In a look at the region, the TMC may win 17-20 seats in North Bengal, the BJP 30-33 seats, and the others 2-5 seats, predicted the Matrize Opinion Poll. In South Bengal, TMC might get 95-100 seats, the BJP 75-80, and the others 04-08.
In Bardhaman-Birbhum, the TMC may win 37-40 seats, the BJP 17-20, and the others 01-03.
TMC vs BJP
The upcoming West Bengal Assembly elections is set to witness a high-stakes contest between the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC), led by Mamata Banerjee, and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which is aiming to end the TMC's rule in the state. The TMC has been in power since 2011, while the BJP has steadily expanded its footprint over the years. In the 2016 Assembly elections, the BJP managed to win just three seats. However, its performance saw a significant jump in 2021, when it emerged as the principal opposition party with 77 seats.
Meanwhile, the All India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul-Muslimeen (AIMIM) has entered the fray in alliance with the Aam Janata Unnayan Party (AJUP), floated by former TMC leader Humayun Kabir. The AIMIM-AJUP alliance is expected to influence vote shares in Muslim-dominated constituencies. Despite the presence of smaller players, the election is largely being viewed as a direct contest between the TMC and the BJP, setting the stage for an intense political battle in the state.
What happened in the 2021 Assembly elections?
In the 2021 West Bengal Assembly elections, the TMC secured a decisive victory, winning 213 seats, well above the two-thirds majority mark in the 294-member Assembly, with a vote share of 48.02%. The BJP emerged as the principal opposition, bagging 77 seats and securing 38.15% of the vote share.
Among other parties, the Gorkha Janmukti Morcha (GJM), an ally of the TMC, won one seat with a 0.27% vote share, while the Indian Secular Front (ISF) also managed to win a single seat with 1.36% of the votes.
The Congress and Left parties, including the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI-M), All India Forward Bloc (AIFB), Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP), and Communist Party of India (CPI)—failed to open their accounts in the election.
West Bengal Elections 2026 dates
West Bengal will go for polls in two phases on April 23 and 29, with the results to be declared on May 4. In the first phase, the election will be held in Purulia, Bankura, Jhargram, Birbhum, East and West Midnapore, Jalpaiguri, Maldaha, Murshidabad, North and South Dinajpur, West Bardhaman, Darjeeling, Coochbehar, Alipurduar, and Kalimpong. In the second phase, the election will be held in East Bardhaman, Nadia, North and South 24 Parganas, Howrah, Hooghly, and Kolkata.
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