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India TV-CNX Exit Poll: State wise seat projection

The exit poll was conducted in all the seven phases of polling from April 11 to May 19 in 542 parliamentary constituencies of India, among a total voter sample of 1,35,500 respondents. Election in one LS seat, Vellore, has been countermanded.

India TV News Desk India TV News Desk
New Delhi Updated on: May 20, 2019 10:23 IST
NDA may get clear majority with 290-310 seats in LS
Image Source : FILE

NDA may get clear majority with 290-310 seats in LS elections, says India TV-CNX exit poll projection 

The National Democratic Alliance at the Centre, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, may get a clear majority within a range of 290-310  seats  in the Lok Sabha election polling for which ended today, according to exit poll projection by India TV-CNX. Results of the exit poll were telecast this evening on the news channel. 

BJP's tally may fall from present 282 to 251 seats, 21 short of  the midway mark of 272 in the Lok Sabha, says the exit poll projection.  Congress tally may go up from 44 seats it got in 2014 to 76 this time, a gain of 32 seats. The party may not be able to cross three-digit figure this time.

The exit poll was conducted in all the seven phases of polling from April 11 to May 19  in 542 parliamentary constituencies of India, among a total voter sample of 1,35,500 respondents. Election in one LS seat, Vellore, has been countermanded. 

The exit poll projection shows, BJP-led NDA may win 290-310 seats, followed by Congress-led UPA which may win 115-125 seats, and 'Others' including SP, BSP, TMC, TRS, regional parties and independents projected to win in a range of 116-128 seats.

 NDA includes BJP, Shiv Sena, Akali Dal, AIADMK, Janata Dal(U), LJP, PMK and other regional parties, while UPA includes Congress, DMK, TDP, JD(S), RJD, JMM, NCP, National Conference, IUML, and other smaller parties. 

'Others' include Samajwadi Party, BSP,  Trinamool Congress, Telangana Rashtra Samithi, Biju Janata Dal, YSR Congress Party, Left Front, PDP of Mehbooba Mufti, AIUDF of Badruddin Ajmal, AIMIM of Asaduddin Owaisi, INLD, Aam Aadmi Party, JVM(P), AMMK of Tamil Nadu and independents.  

In the NDA seat projection of 290-310 seats, BJP may win 251 seats, Shiv Sena 14, AIADMK 8, JD(U) 13, Akali Dal four, PMK two, LJP 4, and remaining seats by other regional and smaller parties.

In the UPA seat projection of 115-125 seats, the Congress may win 76, DMK 18, Lalu Yadav's RJD five, TDP five, and remaining seats by other regional and smaller parties.

The crucial list of 'Others' is led by Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress which is projected to win 29 seats, Samajwadi Party 14, Mayawati's BSP 13, YSR Congress 18, Telangana Rashtra Samithi 14, Biju Janata Dal 15,  Left Front five, and remaining seats by other regional and smaller parties.

In the politically crucial state of Uttar Pradesh, the NDA is projected to win 50 seats, followed by the Maha Gathbandhan of SP, BSP, RLD which is projected to win 28 seats, leaving the remaining two seats to Congress. The party wise breakup: BJP 49, SP 14, BSP 13, Congress 2, RLD 1, Apna Dal 1.

In Delhi, the BJP, in a triangular fight, is projected to make a clean sweep of all seven LS seats, as it did last time in 2014.

In West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress is projected to win 29 seats, while strong contender BJP is projected to win 12 seats, leaving the lone remaining seat to Congress. Left Front may not win a single seat. Vote share wise, TMC may get 42.91 per cent, BJP may get 32.71 pc, Left Front may get 16.10 pc, with the remaining shared by Congress and others.

In Bihar, the NDA is projected to win a whopping 32 out of 40 seats, leaving the remaining eight seats to the RJD-led Maha Gathbandhan. The partywise break up: BJP 15, JD(U) 13, LJP 4, RJD 5, Congress 2 and RLSP 1.  In Bihar, NDA includes BJP, JDU and LJP, while  Maha Gathbandhan includes RJD, Congress, RLSP, HAM, VIP,etc.

In Tamil Nadu, the opposition DMK-led alliance is projected to win 26 seats while the ruling AIADMK-led alliance may win 12 seats. The breakup: (DMK 17, Congress 6, Others 3), (AIADMK 8, BJP 2, PMK 2).

In Maharashtra, BJP-Shiv Sena alliance is projected to win 34 out of total 48 seats, leaving the remaining 14 seats to the Congress-NCP alliance. Party wise breakup: BJP 20, Shiv Sena 14, Congress 8, NCP 6. 

In Kerala, Congress-led UDF is projected to win 14 seats, followed by LDF with  five seats, and the remaining lone seat may go to BJP. Party wise breakup: Congress 10, Left 5, Others 4, BJP 1. 

State wise break up of seats prediction

Uttar Pradesh: BJP 49, BSP 13, SP 14, Congress 2, RLD 1, Apna Dal 1, Total 80.

Uttarakhand: BJP 4, Congress 1. Total 5. 
Rajasthan: BJP 21, Congress 4. Total 25. 
West Bengal: Trinamool Congress 29, BJP 12,  Cong 1. Total 42. 
Odisha: Biju Janata Dal 15, BJP 6. Total 21. 
Madhya Pradesh: BJP 24, Congress 5, Total 29. 
Chhattisgarh: BJP 5, Congress 6, Total 11. 
Punjab: Congress 8, Akali Dal 4, BJP 1. Total 13. 
Haryana: BJP 9, Congress 1, Total 10. 
Bihar: BJP 15,  JD(U) 13, RJD 5, LJP 4, Congress 2, RLSP 1. Total 40.
Jharkhand: BJP 9, JMM 3, Congress 2.  Total 14.
Gujarat : BJP 22, Congress 4.  Total 26. 
Himachal Pradesh: BJP 4.  Total 4. 
Maharashtra: BJP 20, Shiv Sena 14, Congress 8, NCP 6. Total 48.
Goa: BJP 2. Total 2. 
Tamil Nadu: DMK-led alliance 26, AIADMK-led alliance 12. Total 38.(1 countermanded)
Andhra Pradesh: YSR Congress 18, TDP 7.  Total 25. 
Telangana: Telangana Rashtra Samithi 14, Congress 2, AIMIM 1 . Total 17. 
Karnataka: BJP 17, Congress 8, JD(S) 3, Total 28. 
Kerala: UDF 14, LDF 5.BJP 1.  Total 20.
Jammu & Kashmir: BJP 2, NC 3, Congress 1. Total 6. 
Assam: BJP 9, AIUDF 2, Congress 2, Others 1. Total 14. 
Other North East states: BJP 6, Congress 1, NPP 2, NDPP 1, SDF 1. Total 11.
Delhi: BJP 7.   Total 7. 
Other Union Territories:  BJP 4, Congress 2. Total 6. 
 
The final partywise exit poll projections:  BJP 251, Congress 76, Trinamool Congress 29, YSR Congress 18, SP 14, BSP 13, DMK 18, AIADMK 8, TRS 14, Left Front 5, JD(U) 13, NCP 6, RJD 5, Shiv Sena 14, Biju Janata Dal 15, smaller parties and Ind remaining seats. Total 542

The exit poll was conducted through interviews at 16,260 polling stations spread in 542 Lok Sabha constituencies. An average of 250 samples was taken from each polling station selected randomly. The error margin has been kept at +/-2.5 per cent.

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