A strong Western Disturbance is set to affect Jammu and Kashmir from the morning or afternoon of January 22, bringing rain and snowfall to large parts of the region. Weather conditions are expected to worsen by the night of January 22, when most areas are likely to come under a widespread rain and snow spell. Meteorological indicators suggest that the system will initially impact higher reaches before spreading across the plains.
Peak impact expected overnight
The main impact of the weather system is forecast between the night of January 22 and the afternoon or evening of January 23. During this period, moderate to heavy precipitation is likely, increasing the chances of widespread snowfall, including in lower areas and plains.
Weather experts say conditions are highly favourable for snowfall as temperatures are expected to remain low throughout the event.
There is a strong possibility of snowfall in plains due to two key factors suitable cold temperatures and moderate to heavy precipitation, especially during the night hours of January 22. This combination raises the likelihood of snow instead of rain in many areas.
The snowfall is expected to be dry in nature, which usually leads to faster and heavier accumulation compared to wet snow. Several areas in the Jammu region, including Doda, Poonch, Kishtwar and Ramban, are likely to receive good snowfall. The plains of Jammu may experience moderate rainfall, with chances of heavy spells in some pockets.
Areas close to the Pir Panjal range are expected to be among the worst affected.
Sharp drop in temperatures after snowfall
A cold air mass moving in from the west along with the Western Disturbance is expected to cause a sharp fall in temperatures, especially on the night of January 23. As winds turn calm after precipitation, night temperatures could dip sharply, particularly in areas with fresh snow cover.
This could result in freezing conditions and very cold nights across the region. Fresh snowfall and freezing temperatures are likely to make road conditions extremely slippery on January 23, increasing the risk of accidents.
Daytime conditions may also remain icy in many areas. Landslides and shooting stones are expected along the Jammu–Srinagar National Highway, especially during and after the precipitation spell. The Ramban stretch may turn slippery due to snow and ice.
Residents in higher reaches have been advised to clear snow from rooftops to avoid damage or collapse. Flight and train services may also be affected due to bad weather, and travellers are advised to plan their journeys carefully.
