The GDP growth in April-June quarter this fiscal stood at 20.1 per cent. The Indian economy had contracted by 24.4 per cent in April-June last year.
India’s growth projection released by the latest World Economic Outlook remains unchanged from its previous WEO (World Economic Outlook) update of July this summer but is a three-percentage point in 2021 and 1.6 percentage point drop from its April projections.
India is expected to post strong economic growth in the coming quarters, even as inflation, led by food prices, is likely to remain elevated, S&P Global Ratings said on Wednesday.
State Bank of India has developed the 'Nowcasting Model' with 41 high-frequency indicators associated with industrial activity, service activity, and the global economy.
The forecast for 2021-22 is lower than the 12.5 per cent growth in GDP that the international organization predicted in April before the second wave hit India.
The Reserve Bank on Friday lowered the country's growth projection for the current financial year to 9.5 percent from 10.5 percent.
"We expect a decline in economic activity in the April-June quarter, followed by a rebound, resulting in real, inflation-adjusted GDP growth of 9.3 per cent in the fiscal year ending March 2022 and 7. 9 per cent in fiscal 2022-23," Moody’s Investors Service said
S&P, which currently has a 'BBB-' rating on India with a stable outlook, said the depth of the Indian economy's deceleration will determine the hit on its sovereign credit profile.
The Indian economy is projected to grow at 11 per cent in the current financial year amid the "strong" vaccine drive, said ADB on Wednesday, while cautioning that the recent surge in COVID cases may put the country's economic recovery at "risk".
GDP is still likely to grow in the double digits in 2021 given the low level of activity in 2020 according to Moody's Investors Service.
The IMF on Tuesday projected an impressive 12.5 per cent growth rate for India in 2021, stronger than that of China, the only major economy to have a positive growth rate last year during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The Washington-based global lender, in its latest South Asia Economic Focus report released ahead of the annual Spring meeting of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), said that the economy was already slowing when the COVID-19 pandemic unfolded.
China’s economy, which was the first to be hit by the coronavirus pandemic and early to recover from its impact, grew 2.3 per cent in 2020, registering the lowest annual growth rate in 45 years.
The National Statistical Office (NSO) data on Friday showed that the Q2FY21 GDP on a year-on-year basis contracted by 7.3 per cent from (-)24.4 per cent in the preceding quarter.
India has officially exited the technical recession phase that was brought about by the Covid-19 pandemic, as the country's Q3FY21 GDP grew by 0.4 per cent, official data showed on Friday. The National Statistical Office (NSO) data on Friday showed that the Q2FY21 GDP on a year-on-year basis contracted by 7.3 per cent from (-)24.4 per cent in the preceding quarter.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday left interest rates unchanged at 4 per cent. This is the fourth time in a row when the RBI has left the rate unchanged.
After the Budget 2021-22 announcement on Monday, Economic Affairs Secretary Tarun Bajaj had said that real GDP growth would be 10-10.5 per cent in the next fiscal.
The document which was tabled by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in the Lok Sabha in its debt simulations for worst-case debt analysis assumed the contraction at (-) 7.7 per cent.
Fitch said India's coronavirus-induced recession has been among the most severe in the world, amid a stringent lockdown and limited direct fiscal support.
India's GDP growth is expected to be at (-) 7.4 per cent in FY21 on better than projected recovery, said a SBI research report, upgrading its earlier forecast of (-) 10.9 per cent. The report also believes that it would take seven quarters from the fourth quarter of FY21 for GDP to reach the pre-pandemic level in nominal terms.
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