The entry of new communication service providers via satellite communications (satcom) has sparked renewed interest in the sector. Although the Elon Musk-led Starlink has received permission to operate, its potential rollout has been pushed to next year due to pending security clearances and delays regarding spectrum pricing.
Union Telecom Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia stated that satcom services, once considered a figment of imagination, will soon become a reality.
"We have given out three licences. You are looking at, hopefully, very soon, the pricing norm coming out for administratively assigned spectrum and that satellite technology being also offered in our bouquet of offerings to the public," Scindia said.
Starlink's entry is expected to intensify competition in the premium segment, which is currently dominated by Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel. Meanwhile, the government continues its efforts to revive Vodafone Idea (VIL) and BSNL to prevent a market duopoly and protect consumer interests.
Vodafone Idea struggle for survival
In its petition to the Supreme Court, VIL stated that its Adjusted Gross Revenue (AGR) liability stood at Rs 83,400 crore as of March 31, 2025. Starting in March 2026, the company must pay Rs 18,000 crore annually for six years. The company noted that due to this enormous liability and a lack of bank funding, its "very survival is under peril".
A December report from CLSA suggests the government may consider a partial waiver of interest and penalties, which constitute the bulk of the AGR dues. Relief measures might also include expanding the moratorium on payments. However, the government must strike a balance between potential losses to the national exchequer, maintaining a level playing field for operators, and safeguarding consumer interests.
BSNL efforts for revival
In the meantime, the government’s revival plan for BSNL appears to be paying off. The state-run entity posted two consecutive quarters of profit and has begun gaining subscribers following the launch of its 4G services. Government spending on BSNL’s capital expenditure and rural broadband projects has also provided a vital lifeline to indigenous telecom gear makers.
SP Kochhar, Director General of the Cellular Operators' Association of India (COAI), noted that 2025 saw a sharper focus on resilience.
"Domestic manufacturing gained momentum under Make-in-India and PLI schemes, enabling nearly 60 per cent import substitution in telecom products and turning India into an emerging exporter of 4G and 5G equipment. Moreover, telecom exports from India have increased by 72 per cent in the last 5 years, increasing to Rs 18,406 crore in FY25, from Rs 10,000 crore in FY21," he said.
5G’s struggle for monetisation
Private operators reduced their capital expenditure from the peak levels seen in 2024. While data usage continues to climb, providers have struggled to monetise high-speed 5G services. Consequently, many operators discontinued the "1GB per day" entry-level plans to encourage subscribers to move toward higher-paying data tiers.
Enterprise revenue is expected to see a boost following massive investments in AI infrastructure totaling approximately $78 billion—led by Amazon ($35bn), Microsoft ($17.5bn), Google ($15bn), and Digital Connexion ($11bn). Conversely, revenue from 5G captive networks has failed to gain steam due to lingering issues with spectrum pricing and policy clarity.
Cyberfraud on rise
According to the Ericsson Mobility Report, average mobile data usage in India reached 36 GB per month. Fixed wireless access services also grew steadily, with subscribers reaching 13.18 million by October. However, this growth in connectivity has also allowed cybercriminals to exploit the network. While the Department of Telecom has allocated significant resources to combat financial fraud, a push for mandatory Sanchar Saathi app installations faced significant backlash. Opposition leaders and civil society groups labeled the move as state surveillance, leading to the withdrawal of the order.
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