Do Narendra Modi or Rahul Gandhi have the capability to run coalition govts?

New Delhi, Feb 12: The stage looks all set for a Narendra Modi versus Rahul Gandhi clash in 2014 General elections. Congress has indirectly conveyed the message both to the party cadres and the electorate that it's Rahul Gandhi who will be Prime Minister if Congress led UPA romps home for third consecutive term. BJP, on the other hand, is still weighing its options before declaring its Prime Ministerial candidate. In fact, the party is in dilemma over this issue. The overwhelming majority of the rank and file of the party is in favour of Narendra Modi as BJP's PM candidate but some of the allies are not in favour of Narendra Modi. If JD(U) is dead against Modi then the oldest ally Shiv Sena is of the opinion that it's Sushma Swaraj who ahould be NDA's prime ministerial candidate. Sushma Swaraj's name was proposed by none other than the late Shiv Sena supremo Bal Thackeray. But the way Narendra Modi was allowed to occupy the centre stage during his recent Delhi visit leaves very little to doubt that the party leadership has almost made up its mind over Modi's candidature. The confidence that oozed out of Modi during his speech at SRCC was an indicator that the party has given enough hints to him over his imminent elevation in coming days and well before 2014 elections. But the most important question is this – Do Narendra Modi or Rahul Gandhi have the skills to smoothly run coalition governments? Everybody knows that irrespective of who would be the Prime Minister, it has to be a coalition government. Congress has conceded enough space to regional satraps since 1984 and even they know single party majority has become a thing of the past. India witnessed the last single party government way back in 1984 when Rajiv Gandhi won hands down riding on sympathy wave in the aftermath of his mother's assassination. After that, it has been either a minority government like Narasimha Rao's government or coalition governments - first in 1989 and after that all governments post 1996. The Congress party is no longer in the fray in crucial states like UP and Bihar. The BJP, on the other hand, never succeeded in making its presence felt outside Hindi heartland and western India. Karnataka was a big catch for BJP in south but intra-party machinations have left the party in tatters there. The party has virtually no presence in some of the larger states like West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. Both the parties have stopped making efforts for spreading their influence in states where they are weak. Instead, they have found shortcut to political success – political alliances of convenience. It has worked well in the recent past but it requires entirely different skill sets that both Modi and Rahul Gandhi will be completely new to. Narendra Modi has won Gujarat assembly elections for third time in a row and every time he succeeded in winning a clear cut majority. Governance becomes easy when you get free run in framing and executing key political decisions. But it's entirely different ball game when it comes to coalition politics. Ask Jaswant Singh, the all-time trouble shooter of the then PM Atal Behari Vajpayee, how many times he had to fly to Chennai and Kolkata to placate difficult allies. Modi is known as a no-nonsense person. Ask his own party men, they will tell you he listens to no one, if he has made up his mind over any issue. That's one reason why he is not on good terms with various RSS affiliates in the state. And this despite the fact, that once upon a time, he himself was a full time RSS pracharak. Given his uncompromising nature, will Modi be able to manage recalcitrant allies? Will he show the patience of listening to and conceding to the unending and sometimes even unjustified demands of regional allies who lack national outlook and are more interested in catering to the aspirations of their specific regional electorates? If Modi has emerged as the most preferred PM candidate in most of the surveys then it's primarily because of the iron-man image that he has so carefully cultivated for himself. But this iron-man image will have to undergo litmus-test time and again if he has to run a coalition government. Will he be able to manage all this without compromising with his no-nonsense image and iron-man like approach towards challenging issues? The task seems difficult if history is any indication. And will he able to do justice and match expectations of his electorates if he compromises on those very assets that his electorates will vote him for? Rahul Gandhi, on the other hand, has never been in the government. He has no administrative experience therefore he carries no baggage. But he is also not known to posses compromising and accommodative nature. In fact, Nehru-Gandhi family is not known for compromises. They have always ruled with iron-hand. Be it Jawahar Lal Nehru, India Gandhi or Rajiv Gandhi, they all had clear cut majority behind them in the parliament. All Coalition governments led by Congress party were presided over by those Congressmen who were not part of Nehru-Gandhi family. Rahul Gandhi, by nature, looks very introvert. He is not even articulate and always looks short of words when replying to crucial questions of socio-economic interests. It is an indication of the fact that man management is not something Rahul is either comfortable with or would love to spend time on but in a coalition government, it's an essential pre-requisite. This is not to say that a Prime Minister does all the micro-management required for running a coalition government but there are allies who prefer not to talk to anybody less than the Prime Minister himself. That is where the real challenge lies for Rahul Gandhi. A direct fight between Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi in 2014 looks certain under given circumstances but it also raises a question mark over the stability of the new government. And the reason is very clear – both the contenders are not used to be pilloried by small alliance partners with regional outlook who camouflage themselves as true friends but for all practical purposes they believe in friendship of convenience. Will Narendra Modi or Rahul Gandhi be able to deliver under these compelling coalition realities? Only time will tell.

Do Narendra Modi or Rahul Gandhi have the capability to run coalition govts?

New Delhi, Feb 12: The stage looks all set for a Narendra Modi versus Rahul Gandhi clash in 2014 General elections. Congress has indirectly conveyed the message both to the party cadres and the electorate

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