Assam Exit Polls 2026 Highlights: Himanta-led BJP likely to form govt with 85-95 seats, predicts Matrize

In the Barak Valley region, the BJP-led alliance may win 9-10 seats, while the Congress-led alliance may win 3-4 seats and others may win 0-1 seats.

In North and Central Assam, the BJP-led alliance may win 28-30 seats, the Congress-led alliance may win 6-8 seats, and others may win 1-3 seats. In Lower Assam, the BJP-led alliance may win 19-21 seats, the Congress-led alliance may win 9-11 seats, and others may win 2-4 seats.  

The ruling BJP in Assam, headed by Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, may sweep the assembly elections by securing more than two-third majority, says Matrize poll projections, telecast on India TV this evening. 

The BJP-led alliance may win 85-95 seats in a House of 126 members, with Congress-led alliance projected to win 25-32 seats. Others including independents may win six to twelve seats. 

Vote share projections show, BJP-led alliance may get 45.5 pc votes, while Congress-led alliance may get only 39.8 pc votes. Others including independents may get 14.7 pc votes.  

NDA is likely to sweep Assam assembly election with 88-100 seats, predicted Axis My India exit polls. As per Matrize, BJP is likely to get 85 to 95 seats, while Congress is getting 25 to 32 seats.  As per the votes percentage, BJP is likely to get 45.5 per cent vote, Congress- 39.8 per cent. 

BJP-led alliance is likely to get 45.5% of vote share. While Congress-led alliance is likely to get 39.8% of vote share, predicted Matrize Exit Poll. 

BJP is likely to get 85-95 seats in Assam, predicted Matrize Exit Poll. While Congress and allies are likely to win 25-32 seats. 

In the 2021 Assam Assembly Elections, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) candidate Himanta Biswa Sarma won the Jalukbari seat with a margin of 1,01,911 votes (61.02%). He polled 1,30,762 votes with a vote share of 77.39%. He defeated Congress candidate Bomen Chandra Borthakur, who got 28,851 votes (17.07%). Indepndemt candidate Hemanta Kumar Sut stood third with 4,838 votes (2.86%).

In the 2016 Assam Assembly Elections, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) candidate Himanta Biswa Sarma won the Jalukbari seat with a margin of 85,935 votes (55.62%). He polled 1,18,390 votes with a vote share of 76.62%. Congress candidate Niren Deka got 32,455 votes (21.01%) and was the runner-up. NOTA stood third with 1,074 votes (0.70%).

Jalukbari Assembly Constituency has witnessed keen political contests over the years, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Congress, Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), United People's Party Liberal (UPPL), All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), Bodoland People's Front (BPF) and the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPM) are being the main parties. The key candidates for the Jalukbari seat are Assam Chief Minister and BJP leader Himanta Biswa Sarma and Congress leader Bidisha Neog among others. The Jalukbari Assembly constituency comes under the Gauhati Lok Sabha constituency.  

The Assam Assembly exit poll will go live at 6:30 PM.  The main contest is between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Congress. The Assam assembly has recorded a turnout of 85.21 per cent, surpassing the previous figure of 82.04 per cent in the previous election in 2021. Dalgaon recorded the highest voting turnout of 94.57 per cent, while the lowest voting turnout recorded in Amri at 70.40 per cent.   

For the first four assembly polls since 1972 in Assam, people of the Barhampur assembly seat had selected three different parties and an independent candidate as their MLA. But since 1991, this constituency became a stronghold of the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and its leader Prafulla Kumar Mahanta. Mahanta has been a six-time MLA from this seat. 

The saffron party has reposed its faith in Goswami for the 2026 elections, who has expressed confidence of retaining this seat once again. 

For the first four assembly polls since 1972 in Assam, people of the Barhampur assembly seat had selected three different parties and an independent candidate as their MLA. But since 1991, this constituency became a stronghold of the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and its leader Prafulla Kumar Mahanta. Mahanta has been a six-time MLA from this seat. 

This year, the Kaliabor assembly constituency contest between AGP's Mahanta and Raijor Dal's Pradip Kumar Baruah. The Raijor Dal is in an alliance with Congress, which is also looking to make a comeback in the state after losing the power to the BJP in the 2016 assembly elections. As per the seat-sharing agreement finalised by Raijor Dal and Congress, the former will contest on 11 seats. But there will also be a friendly contest between them on two constituencies.  

For majority of its history, the Haflong assembly constituency was a fortress of the Congress. For the first two elections held in 1967 and 1972, it was won by Congress leader JB Hagjer. In 1978, Janata Party leader Sona Ram Thaosen won this seat. Then Gobinda Chandra Langthasa won Haflong in 1983 as an independent candidate but later joined the Congress.

From 1985 to 2011, Langthasa won this seat constantly, except for the 1996 elections, when Autonomous State Demand Committee (ASDC) leader Samarjit Haflongbar bagged this constituency. In 2016, the BJP fielded Bir Bhadra Hagjer who won this seat, defeating Congress candidate Nirmal Langthasa by around 9,000 votes. For the 2021 polls, the saffron party had fielded Nandita Garlosa, who defeated Congress' Nirmal Langthasa by around 17,000 votes.

In the 2021 Assam Assembly Elections, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) candidate Hitendra Nath Goswami won the Jorhat seat with a margin of 6,488 votes (4.68%). He polled 68,321 votes with a vote share of 48.84%. He defeated Congress candidate Rana Goswami, who got 61,833 votes (44.20%). ASMJTYP candidate Nirod Changkakoti stood third with 69,25 votes (4.95%).

In the 2016 Assam Assembly Elections, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) candidate Hitendra Nath Goswami won the Jorhat seat with a margin of 13,638 votes (10.43%). He polled 69,209 votes with a vote share of 52.91%. Congress candidate Rana Goswami got 55,571 votes (42.48%) and was the runner-up. Liberal Democratic Party candidate Prodyut Kumar Bora stood third with 1,372 votes (1.05%).

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Congress, Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), United People's Party Liberal (UPPL), All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), Bodoland People's Front (BPF) and the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPM) are the main parties in the state. The key candidates for the Jorhat seat are Congress leader gaurav Gogoi and BJP's Hitendra Nath Goswami among others. The Jorhat Assembly constituency comes under the Jorhat Lok Sabha constituency.  

The Assam Assembly Elections 2026 are witnessing several high-profile VIP contests, including Jalukbari, where Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma (BJP) is seeking re-election against the Congress candidate Bidisha Neog. In Jorhat, Gaurav Gogoi (Congress) faces a challenge from BJP's Hitendra Nath Goswami. Other important candidates include Akhil Gogoi (Raijor Dal) from Sibsagar, Debabrata Saikia (Congress) from Nazira, Pradyut Bordoloi (BJP) from Dispur, Ripun Bora (Congress) from Barchalla, Rajen Gohain (AJP) from Barhampur, Keshab Mahanta (AGP) from Kaliabor, Biswajit Daimary (BJP) from Tamulpur, Badruddin Ajmal (AIUDF) from Binnakandi, Nandita Garlosa (Congress) from Haflong, Atul Bora (AGP) from Bokakhat, and Pramod Boro (UPPL) from Tamulpur, among others.

The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Assam includes the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), and the Bodoland People's Front (BPF). 

Sibsagar was historically considered a stronghold of Congress, which enjoyed uninterrupted dominance for decades through a mix of loyalty among traditional Assamese voters and strong local leadership. However, the constituency witnessed a major shift in 2021 when noted activist Akhil Gogoi, contesting as an Independent backed by the Raijor Dal, won the seat. This time key candidates for the Sibsagar seat are Raijor Dal's Akhil Gogoi, BJP's Kushal Dowari, and AGP leader Prodip Hazarika. 

In the last assembly elections in 2021, BJP secured 60 seats, while the Congress bagged 29 seats. The saffron party emerged as the single largest party in terms of vote share, BJP secured 33.2 per cent vote, Congress - 29.7 per cent vote. The other parties - Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) - 7.9 per cent, United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL) - 3.4 per cent, All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) - 9.3 per cent vote 

 Dalgaon recorded the highest voting turnout of 94.57 per cent, while the lowest voting turnout recorded in Amri at 70.40 per cent. The Assam assembly has recorded a turnout of 85.21 per cent. 

The Assam assembly has recorded a turnout of 85.21 per cent, surpassing the previous figure of 82.04 per cent in the previous election in 2021.  

The main contest is between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Congress. Last year, BJP swept the assembly election with 60 seats, while the opposition Congress bagged 29 seats.