China recorded its lowest-ever birth rate in 2025, as the country's population fell for the fourth consecutive year, intensifying a demographic crisis that could burden the world’s second-largest economy for decades. According to official data, China's population declined to 1.404 billion in 2025, down by about 3 million from the previous year.
Births plunge 17% in 2025
Only 7.92 million babies were born in 2025, a sharp drop of 1.62 million, or 17 per cent, compared to the previous year. The data also show that the slight uptick in births recorded in 2024 was short-lived. In fact, births had already been falling continuously for seven years until 2023.
Most families cite the costs and pressure of raising a child in a highly competitive society as significant hurdles that now loom larger in the face of an economic downturn that has impacted households struggling to meet their living costs.
China's declining fertility rate
Like several other Asian countries, China has been grappling with a sharp fall in fertility rates, which measure the average number of children a woman is expected to have over her lifetime. Although Beijing does not regularly release fertility data, it last reported a rate of 1.3 in 2020. Demographers now estimate the figure has slipped to around 1, well below the replacement level of 2.1 needed to sustain the country's population.
Measured another way, the birth rate in 2025 is the lowest on record. The rate of 5.63% is the number of births per 1,000 people.
After enforcing a strict one-child policy for decades, the government relaxed the limit to two children in 2015 and further expanded it to three in 2021 as demographic pressures mounted. However, these policy shifts have yielded limited results. In an effort to encourage larger families, the government announced cash subsidies of 3,600 yuan (about $500) per child in July.
Alongside incentives, authorities have also taken steps aimed at influencing behaviour. In 2025, China removed contraceptives, including condoms, from its value-added tax exemption list, subjecting them to a 13 per cent tax from January 1.
To promote child-rearing, kindergartens and daycare centres have been added to the tax-exempt category, along with matchmaking services.
China, once the world's most populous country, lost that distinction in 2023 when it was overtaken by its neighbour India.
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