India's population, currently the largest in the world, is projected to peak in the early 2060s at around 1.7 billion before entering a period of gradual decline. Yet India will remain the most populous country through the end of this century according to the United Nations' World Population Prospects. The report published by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) outlines major demographic shifts over the next 75 years. While India's population will plateau and then fall slightly China’s will drop sharply and the United States is expected to experience modest growth largely due to migration. These population trends are expected to reshape the global order economically, socially and politically as ageing, labour availability and migration become critical policy challenges for large nations.
Where does India stand today?
India's estimated population stands at 1.44 billion slightly ahead of China's 1.41 billion. The UN projects that India's population will continue to grow over the next three decades reaching a peak of 1.69 billion in 2054 and stabilising around 1.7 billion in the early 2060s. Thereafter it is expected to decline by about 12 per cent reaching 1.5 billion by 2100. Despite this fall India will continue to lead globally in population size largely due to sharper declines elsewhere.
Why will India's population decline?
India's demographic slowdown is driven by a steady decline in fertility rates and the waning of population momentum. The latest National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5, 2019–21) puts India's Total Fertility Rate (TFR) at 2.0 births per woman just below the replacement level of 2.1, the threshold at which each generation replaces itself. Most states have achieved or are approaching this level and this trend is expected to continue.
Population momentum, the effect of a previously large childbearing cohort is also expected to ease as a greater share of Indians move out of the reproductive age group (15-49 years) over the coming decades.
Are regional trends slowing progress?
While national averages suggest that India is nearing population stabilisation, regional disparities remain significant. Uttar Pradesh and Bihar continue to have high fertility rates at 2.35 and 2.98 respectively, as per NFHS-5. These two states alone account for over a quarter of India's births and unless fertility declines faster here, they will continue to drive overall growth. Programmes like Mission Parivar Vikas which targets 145 high-fertility districts nearly two-thirds of them in UP and Bihar have attempted to address this through improved access to contraception and awareness campaigns. However implementation remains patchy and underfunded.
China's population is already shrinking
China, once home to the world's largest population has now entered a phase of rapid demographic decline. Having peaked at 1.42 billion in 2022, China’s population is projected to drop to 1.21 billion by 2054 and further to 633 million by 2100, a 55 per cent fall over the century according to the UN report.
This decline is largely due to extremely low fertility, currently estimated at 1.0 births per woman, one of the lowest globally. Despite the end of its one-child policy in 2016 and new incentives for families, China has been unable to reverse the trend.
"Unless fertility rates rise significantly, China is on course to return to its 1950s population levels," said John Wilmoth, Director of the UN Population Division.
What happens to the US?
The US, currently the world's third most populous country with around 339 million people is projected to grow modestly over the coming decades driven mainly by immigration. The US population is expected to reach about 394 million by 2061 and 395 million by 2100 according to the UN report.
Unlike India and China, the US benefits from a high net migration rate which helps offset its low fertility (currently around 1.7 births per woman). But the country will still face challenges from an ageing population with more than one in five Americans projected to be over 65 by 2050.
How global population is changing
These shifts have deep implications for economics, geopolitics and public policy. A shrinking China may face labour shortages, rising health costs and slower growth. An ageing India will need to focus on elder care and job creation for a still-large youth bulge. The US while buffered by immigration will need policy responses on healthcare and pension reforms.
Globally, the population is projected to peak at 10.3 billion in the 2080s before falling slightly to 10.2 billion by 2100. But this overall stability masks sharp contrasts between nations with some like Nigeria set to rise steeply, while others, such as Japan, Russia, and much of Eastern Europe, are already seeing rapid declines.
While the idea of a "population explosion" still dominates popular discourse, demographers warn that India's real challenge lies not in controlling numbers but in managing a smooth transition to population stabilisation.
India's projected population peak around 2061 will not mark a crisis, but rather a turning point. While China faces a sharp contraction and the US relies on immigration to maintain demographic balance, India has the opportunity to reap a demographic dividend by investing in its youth, health systems and workforce.