Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who is on his first official visit to India this week, is seen as a key opportunity to rebuild and strengthen India-Canada relations. This will be his third meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi in just 10 months, a pace that signals a serious effort to move beyond past tensions.
From crisis to thaw
Relations between India and Canada were strained in 2023-24, with both countries accusing each other of wrongdoing. Diplomats were expelled, political statements turned sharp, and trade and travel were affected. Trust had collapsed, making the relationship fragile.
The thaw began in 2025, with talks and structured engagement easing tensions. Security discussions led by Ajit Doval helped put contentious issues into formal channels, allowing both sides to focus on cooperation rather than confrontation.
CEPA in focus
One major focus of Carney’s visit is the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), in negotiation since 2010 but repeatedly delayed. Both sides aim to finalize it soon, potentially doubling trade to $50 billion by 2030.
CEPA could cover energy, digital services, critical minerals, and infrastructure, providing stable frameworks for investment, project timelines, and easier business operations.
Canadian investors have already poured over $100 billion into Indian airports, logistics, and urban infrastructure. With CEPA, this could triple by 2030, while Indian companies are increasingly expanding into Canada.
Carney’s visit is not just about economics. Canada is seeking to reduce its reliance on the US for trade, while India is building global partnerships as the world’s fastest-growing major economy. Both countries value sovereignty, strategic autonomy, and resilience, giving them common ground to coordinate policies amid global uncertainty.
A fast-tracked CEPA in 2026 could signal a strong new chapter for India-Canada relations. Coupled with deals in critical minerals, uranium, AI, and defense, the partnership could become a model of practical cooperation, moving beyond the mistrust and political tension that dominated the past few years.
