The opinion poll by Matrize has predicted a close fight between the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the United Democratic Front (UDF) in the upcoming Kerala Assembly elections. However, the survey indicated that no single alliance is likely to secure a clear majority. According to the survey, LDF is expected to win around 62-68 seats, while the UDF may secure 67-73 seats. The Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is projected to win 5 to 8 seats, potentially placing it in a crucial "kingmaker" position. Other parties are likely to win 0-3 seats, the poll suggested.
Matrize Opinion poll (140 seats)
- LDF: 62-68 seats
- UDF: 67-73 seats
- BJP+: 5-8 seats
- Others: 0-3 seats
Vote share and region-wise breakup
As per the Matrize Opinion poll, the LDF is likely to get 39% of votes in Kerala, while the Congress-led UDF may receive 42% of votes in the state. The BJP-led NDA is likely to get 15% of the votes.
In a single look at the region, the UDF may win 25-27 seats in the Malabar, the LDF 20-22 seats, and the NDA 00-02 seats, predicted the Matrize Opinion Poll. In South Kerala, the LDF may win 23-26 seats, the UDF 20-23, NDA 01-03, and the others 00-02.
Triangular contest in Kerala
The upcoming Kerala Assembly elections is expected to witness a triangular contest, with the primary battle between the LDF and UDF, while the NDA is also looking to expand its presence. The LDF, led by the Communist Party of India (Marxist) and headed by Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, is aiming to retain power for a third consecutive term. On the other hand, the Congress-led UDF is hoping to regain power after its last Assembly victory in 2011.
The BJP is in alliance with the Bharath Dharma Jana Sena (BDJS) and Twenty20 Party in Kerala, United Democratic Front-led by Congress has a pact with the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), Kerala Congress (Jacob), Kerala Congress (Joseph), Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP) and Left Democratic Front (LDF) is in alliance with the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPIM), Communist Party of India (CPI), Kerala Congress M, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Nationalist Congress Party - Sharadchandra Pawar (NCP SP) and the Indian National League (INL).
What happened in the 2021 Assembly elections?
In the previous elections held in 2021, the LDF won 99 of the 140 seats it contested, and its vote share also increased by 1.95 per cent. The Communist Party of India (Marxist) was the single largest party with 62 seats. On the other hand, the UDF won 41 seats, with the Congress being its largest constituent with 22 assembly constituencies. The BJP-led NDA had failed to open its account in the 2021 elections.
Talking about the 2016 Kerala elections, the LDF won 77 seats, with the CPI(M) alone bagging 58 of them. The UDF won just 47 seats, with the Congress winning around 22 seats. The single largest party was the CPI(M). The CPI(M)'s vote share was 26.7 per cent, while that of the Congress was 23.8 per cent.
Kerala Assembly Elections 2026
The elections to the 140-member Kerala Legislative Assembly will be held in a single phase on April 9, with counting scheduled for May 4.
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