New Delhi: The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) will today announce its first forecast for the rainfall the country is likely to receive in monsoon season from June to September.
Reports suggested that IMD see a high probability of the occurrence of El Nino, a condition that can adversely affect the rains.
International agencies had earlier predicted that El Nino conditions will continue through summer and autumn saying the situation will adversely affect the monsoon.
The Australian Commonwealth Bureau of Meteorology said that chances of El Nino occurring in 2015 have increased as ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific continue to be warmer than average.
An El Nino, abnormal heating up of east and central equatorial Pacific waters, causes change in wind patterns and also the Indian monsoon. However, in some El Nino years, such as 2006 and 1997, the monsoon was normal.
An independent weather forecaster, Skymet, however, last week predicted that the country will witness normal monsoon this year.
"The monsoon onset is expected to be early, around May 27, and fairly strong. Pre-monsoon rain will also be strong across the country. Unseasonal rain will continue well into May," it said.
The monsoon, which supplies over 80% of India's annual rainfall, is crucial for the country's economy. It affects farm output thus affecting food inflation and overall economic growth of the country.