The Israel-Iran war entered its 8th day on Friday with both countries ramping their offensive on each other. IDF continues to target Iranian military bases and nuclear facilities to deter it from what's claimed to be enriching of nuclear weapons while Iranian forces have fired several hundred projectiles including missiles into Israeli territory.
Beyond the looming question of possible US military intervention, two critical factors are shaping the trajectory of the ongoing Israel–Iran conflict: the number of missile interceptors Israel has left, and the size of Iran’s long-range missile stockpile. Another factor of significance is the IDF's approach in using its defence systems to interceptor Iranian projectiles based on the location they're being fired at.
Israel's interceptors: Highly effective but limited in number
Since Iran began retaliatory strikes last week, Israel's world-class air defence systems have intercepted most incoming ballistic missiles. This has allowed the Israeli Air Force to launch deeper strikes into Iran with minimal damage at home, a report by The New York Times says.
However, Israeli defence officials are increasingly concerned that the country is using up its interceptors faster than they can be replenished. With production unable to match the current rate of deployment, Israel is beginning to prioritise high-risk targets - such as major cities and strategic infrastructure - over less populated areas.
Selective approach
"Interceptors are not grains of rice," said Brigadier General Ran Kochav, former commander of Israel’s air defence, who still serves in the reserves. He says the number is inexhaustible.
He added, “If a missile is supposed to hit refineries in Haifa, it’s clear that it’s more important to intercept that missile than one that will hit the Negev desert."
Iran's ballistic missile stockpile: Estimated 2,000, but diminishing now
At the start of the conflict, Israeli officials estimated that Iran held approximately 2,000 ballistic missiles. Officials now believe that between one-third and one-half of these have either been launched or destroyed in Israeli strikes on missile storage sites, the report adds.
Recent barrages from Iran have been noticeably smaller, possibly indicating a strategic effort to conserve remaining weapons. Iran has not commented on the current size of its arsenal, and its mission to the United Nations did not respond to requests for clarification.
Current damage: 400 Iranian missiles fired, 40 breaches
By Wednesday morning, Iran had launched around 400 ballistic missiles at Israel. Of these, roughly 40 penetrated Israel’s air defence systems and struck civilian areas. The remaining 360 were intercepted or allowed to fall in uninhabited zones or bodies of water.
Some missiles may have required more than one interceptor to neutralise, making it difficult to calculate how many interceptors have been used. The Israeli military has not disclosed how many remain in reserve, citing national security concerns.
Official stance and future concerns
In a statement, the Israeli military said it “is prepared and ready to handle any scenario and is operating defensively and offensively to remove threats to Israeli civilians.”
Yet, within the Israeli security establishment, concerns persist. The key question now is whether Israel’s interceptor supply will last longer than Iran’s ability to fire missiles. As both sides face mounting logistical pressure, the balance between missile offence and missile defence could determine how long this war continues — and how much damage each side is willing, or able, to absorb.