New Delhi : The CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front may stage a comeback in the forthcoming Kerala assembly polls, while Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress may retain power in West Bengal, says an opinion poll conducted by CVoter, telecast on India TV this evening.
In Assam, the BJP-led alliance, which is locked in a battle with the ruling Congress, may fall short of majority, while in Tamil Nadu, the ruling AIADMK may also fall slightly short of majority in the 234-seat assembly, says the opinion poll conducted in the first week of March.
In Kerala, Chief Minister Oommen Chandy's United Democratic Front may be dislodged from power. It has been projected to win 49 seats, compared to 72 seats won five years ago, while the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front is projected to win 89 seats, with a clear majority in a House of 140. LDF had won 66 seats five years ago. BJP-led NDA is projected to win only one, and 'Others' 1.
Vote percentage wise, LDF is projected to get 44.6 pc, up by one per cent, while UDF is projected to get 39.1 pc (down from 45.8 pc last time).
In West Bengal, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee is projected to retain power, with her party Trinamool Congress projected to win 156 seats in a House of 294. The party had won 184 seats five years ago. The CPI(M)-led Left Front is projected to win 114 seats(up from 60 seats five years ago), while the Congress' share of seats may shrink from 42 five years ago to 13 this time. 'Others' are projected to win 7 seats.
Vote percentage wise, Trinamool Congress voteshare may fall to 37.1 pc from 38.9 pc last time, while the Left Front's share may steeply fall to 34.6 pc from 39.7 pc last time. BJP's voteshare is projected to rise to 10.8 pc from 4.1 pc last time.
In Tamil Nadu, the AIADMK, which is locked in a fierce contest with Karunanidhi's DMK, may fall two seats short of majority in a House of 234. the AIADMK is projected to win only 116 seats, down from 203 seats five years ago, while the DMK's share of seats may rise to 101 from 31 last time. BJP may draw a blank, with 'Others' projected to win 17 seats.
Vote percentagewise, AIADMK's vote share may fall to 41.1 pc, down from 51.9 pc last time, while the DMK-led alliance's vote share may stay stable at 39.5 pc. BJP's voteshare is projected to rise to 5.0, from 2.2 last time.
In the northeastern state of Assam, the BJP-led alliance is projected to win 57 seats in a House of 126, seven short of majority. Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi's Congress party is projected to win 44 seats, down from 78 it won five years ago. Badruddin Ajmal's All Indian United Democratic Front is projected to win 19 seats, one up from last time, while 'Others' may win six.
The survey makes it clear that, the survey in Assam was conducted before Asom Gana Parishad and BJP tieup was announced. The BJP-led alliance in the survey results, includes Bodo People's Front.
The CVoter also clarified that the "full impact of AGP-BJP alliance will be known only in the next round of survey. The AGP figures in this survey are part of 'Others'"
Voting percentagewise, BJP-led alliance is projected to get 35 pc, up from 33.9 pc last time, while the ruling Congress voteshare may be reduced to 35.6 from 39.4 last time.