The 2026 Tamil Nadu elections are likely to witness a neck-and-neck battle between the INDIA bloc, led by Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which is being led by the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), according to an opinion poll conducted by Matrize on Monday. The data, though, has given a slight edge to the NDA, predicting that the alliance would win somewhere between 107 to 120 seats.
The data also predicted that the DMK-Congress combine may win around 102 to 115 seats. The new entrant, Vijay-led Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), may win five to 12 seats, while others may bag one to six seats, the Matrize opinion poll data suggested. The NDA's vote share is likely to be around 40 per cent and that of DMK-Congress combine could be 38 per cent. TVK's vote share will likely be 16 per cent and others may receive around six per cent votes, the data predicted.
In South Tamil Nadu, the NDA may win 24-26 seats, the DMK+ 22-24, the TVK 0-2, and others 0-2 seats, the Matrize Opinion Poll suggested. In Cauvery Delta which has 47 seats, the NDA could bag 22-25 seats, the DMK+ 21-24, the TVK: 01-03, and others 00-01. In Chennai region, the DMK+ is expected to win 16-19 seats, the NDA 12-15 seats, the TVK 4-7, and other 0-1.
AIADMK-led NDA vs DMK+
The polling for the elections to the 234-member Legislative Assembly in Tamil Nadu will be held in a single phase on April 23, and the results will be declared by the Election Commission of India (ECI) on May 4. The Tamil Nadu elections are going to be face-off between the INDIA bloc, led by DMK, and the NDA, which is being led by the AIADMK.
In Tamil Nadu, the NDA includes the AIADMK, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), the Amma Makkal Munnettra Kazagam (AMMK), the Tamizhaga Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (TMMK), the South Indian Forward Bloc (SIFB), the Tamil Maanila Congress (Moopanar), the Indhiya Jananayaga Katchi (IJK), the Puratchi Bharatham Katchi (PBK), and the Puthiya Needhi Katchi (PNK).
Meanwhile, the DMK+ comprises the Congress, the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK), the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), the Communist Party of India (Marxist), the Communist Party of India (CPI), the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), the Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK) and others.
The 2016 and 2021 Tamil Nadu elections
In the 2016 Tamil Nadu elections, the AIADMK received a clear majority, winning 134 seats on its own. Though the DMK failed to win, its performance remained impressive and the party won 89 seats. Its alliance partners, the Congress and the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) won eight seats and one seat, respectively. The 2016 elections were historic for Tamil Nadu, as it broke the partner of alternating governments.
In the 2021 Tamil Nadu polls, the DMK swept the polls, winning 133 seats on its own to end the AIADMK combine's rule. Its alliance partners, the Congress and the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK) won 18 and four seats, respectively. The AIADMK's tally, on the other hand, reduced from 134 to 66. The Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) won five seats, while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) bagged four constituencies. Later, Stalin was sworn in as the chief minister.
