The Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is likely to retain power in Assam under the leadership of Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, but with a greater majority, according to an opinion poll conducted by Matrize on Monday. The data claimed that the BJP-led coalition will likely emerge victorious on 92 to 102 seats. The NDA in Assam includes the BJP, the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), and the Bodoland People's Front (BPF).
On the contrary, the tally of the Congress and its allies will likely be between 22 to 32. The Congress is in alliance with the Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP), the Raijor Dal, the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M), the All Party Hill Leaders Conference (APHLC) and the Communist Party of India (Marxist–Leninist) Liberation, and the bloc is called the Asom Sonmilito Morcha (ASM). Others may also win around four to seven seats, Matrize's opinion poll data suggested.
Vote share and region-wise breakup
The data also predicted that the NDA may receive around 46 per cent of the votes in Assam, while the Congress-led alliance will likely to get 36 per cent. Others may receive around 18 per cent votes.
In one looks as per the region, the NDA may win to 10-12 seats in the Barak Valley, the Congress+ 2-4 seats and others 1-2 seats, predicted the Matrize Opinion Poll. In North and Central Assam, the NDA may win 27-29 seats, the Congress+ 4-6, and other 0-1. The NDA may win 22-24 seats in Lower Assam, the Congress+ 7-9, and others 2-5.
In Bodoland, the NDA will likely win 10-12 seats, the Congress+ 0-2, and others 2-4, the Matrize Opinion Poll predicted. In Upper Assam, the NDA will likely win 21-23 seats and the Congress+ 5-7 seats.
BJP-led NDA vs Congress+
The elections to the 126-member Assam Legislative Assembly will be held in a single phase on April 9 and the results will be declared on May 4, along with those in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and the union territory (UT) of Puducherry. The elections in the northeast state are going to be duel between the NDA and the Congress-led coalition.
The BJP, under the leadership of Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, is looking to secure a third straight term. The party has been in power in Assam since 2016; though it has never been able to secure a majority on its own, it was able to form the government along with its alliance partners.
On the other hand, the Congress is looking to regain power in the state, which was once considered its fortress. Under the leadership of its charismatic leader Tarun Gogoi, the Congress was in power in Assam from 2001 to 2016, but had lost to the BJP in the 2016 assembly elections.
The 2021 and 2016 Assam elections
In the 2016 Assam elections, the BJP emerged as the single largest party, winning 60 assembly constituencies. Along with its partners, the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and the Bodoland People's Front (BPF), it was able to form the government. The AGP and the BDF had won 14 and 12 seats, respectively, while the Congress emerged victorious on 26 seats. Later, Sarbananda Sonowal was sworn in as the chief minister.
In the 2021 Assam polls, the BJP once again became the single largest party with 60 seats. However, the NDA's total tally had reduced. The NDA back then included the AGP (nine seats) and the United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL) (six seats). The Congress' tally had improved in 2021 from 26 to 29. On the other hand, the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) and the BPF won 16 and four seats, respectively. The CPI(M) also won one seat. Later, Sarma was sworn in as the chief minister.
