As tensions between the United States, Israel and Iran continue into a second month, concerns are growing over the political impact on US President Donald Trump. A leading American security expert has warned that the ongoing conflict could weaken Trump’s hold on power if it drags on. Robert Pape, a national security specialist and air power analyst, has suggested that the President is facing a difficult choice.
According to him, Trump must either pursue a challenging diplomatic agreement, which may carry a high political cost, or intensify military action by attempting to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force.
Pape explained that choosing further military escalation could lead to a prolonged conflict lasting between three and six months. Such a situation, he said, would steadily increase political pressure on the President. While not suggesting formal removal from office, Pape noted that Trump could effectively lose his authority as political support declines.
Republican leaders to distance themselves
He added that this loss would likely come from within Trump’s own party. As elections draw closer, Republican leaders may begin distancing themselves from the President in order to protect their own positions. This gradual shift, Pape warned, could leave the administration politically isolated.
"As President Trump is on the horns of a dilemma, he can cut bait now, cut a deal now, pay that high price, break Israel's elbows, threaten to cut off all the raid, do what I'm just describing here, super high price, but possibly his presidency will be recoverable. Or he can go to the other side, the military, the battlefield side, and then go across stage three and start to use military force to physically open the Strait of Hormuz, physically with military force," he said.
"There, I believe, and this is my assessment, that the political costs will mount over those months, that three to six month attrition war will become even worse. And I believe at that point, President Trump will effectively, not physically, but effectively lose his presidency. That his presidency will become unrecoverable. He will become, not that all the Republicans will dump him, and I'm not saying the Republicans would do like an impeachment. What I'm saying is they will distance themselves, not as a group, but one by one by one," Pape added.
Trump’s warning to Iran
Meanwhile, Trump has issued a stark warning to completely obliterate Iran’s energy infrastructure if a deal is not materialised between the two sides.
“The United States of America is in serious discussions with A NEW, AND MORE REASONABLE, REGIME to end our Military Operations in Iran. Great progress has been made but, if for any reason a deal is not shortly reached, which it probably will be, and if the Hormuz Strait is not immediately “Open for Business,” we will conclude our lovely “stay” in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!), which we have purposefully not yet “touched.” This will be in retribution for our many soldiers, and others, that Iran has butchered and killed over the old Regime’s 47 year “Reign of Terror.” Thank you for your attention to this matter,” Trump posted on Truth Social.
