The first Rajya Sabha elections since Jammu and Kashmir's reorganization into a Union Territory are scheduled for Friday (October 24) with political observers anticipating three seats for the ruling National Conference (NC) and one for the BJP, provided their strategies remain on course.
Why are polls being held after 4 years?
The Rajya Sabha elections in Jammu and Kashmir are being held after a four-year gap because the union territory had no legislative assembly during this period. In India, Rajya Sabha members are elected by the legislators of each state and union territory, so without an assembly, elections could not take place.
The four seats of Jammu and Kashmir in the Upper House have remained vacant since 2021. Ghulam Nabi Azad and Nazir Ahmed Laway completed their terms on February 15, 2021, while Fayaz Ahmed Mir and Shamsheer Singh Manhas finished theirs on February 10, 2021.
Following the bifurcation of the former state into the Union Territories of Jammu and Kashmir (with a legislature) and Ladakh (without a legislature), the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Act specified that the four sitting Rajya Sabha members of the erstwhile state would be considered elected to the seats allocated to the new Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir.
Who are all the candidates?
For the Rajya Sabha elections in Jammu and Kashmir, the National Conference (NC) has fielded four candidates, while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has nominated three. The NC candidates are Imran Nabi Dar, Choudhary Muhammad Ramzan, Sajad Kichloo, and Shammi Oberoi. The BJP candidates for the three Rajya Sabha seats are Sat Paul Sharma, Ghulam Mohammad Mir, and Rakesh Mahajan.
The People's Democratic Party (PDP), and Congress have extended support to National Conference candidates in Rajya Sabha polls for four seats in Jammu and Kashmir. Meanwhile, Jammu and Kashmir People's Conference (JKPC) led by Sajad Gani Lone, an erstwhile ally of the BJP-PDP government, had announced that his party will abstain from the Rajya Sabha elections.
National Conference could win three seats
The 90-member Jammu and Kashmir Legislative Assembly currently has 88 sitting MLAs, as two seats in Budgam and Nagrota remain vacant. The NC-Congress alliance has a total of 54 MLAs, including 41 from the National Conference (NC), six from Congress, one CPM, and six Independents. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) holds 28 seats, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) three, while the J&K Peoples Conference and Engineer Rashid's Awami Ittehad Party have one seat each.
For the Rajya Sabha elections, around 45 votes are needed to win a single seat, while 29 votes per seat are required in a two-seat contest. As the largest party, the NC is expected to secure three of the four seats. The BJP is widely expected to win one seat in the two-seat notification.
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