The political contest for the mayor's post in the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), the country's richest civic body, has intensified despite the Mahayuti alliance's decisive victory in the elections held on January 15. However, Uddhav Thackeray's assertion, "If it is God's will, our party will have the mayor," has sparked fresh speculation and raised an obvious question: how can the Shiv Sena (UBT) hope to secure the mayor's post when it does not have a majority?
The numbers game
The BMC has a total strength of 227 corporators, with the majority mark set at 114.
- Shiv Sena (UBT) + MNS: 71 corporators
- BJP + Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena (Mahayuti): 118 corporators
On paper, the Mahayuti enjoys a narrow but clear edge, crossing the majority mark by 4 seats. Yet, numbers alone may not decide the mayoral outcome this time.
The real twist: reservation lottery
In Maharashtra, mayors are elected by corporators, and the post is subject to reservation by rotation. The crucial factor is the reservation of the mayor's post, which will be decided through a lottery on Thursday (January 22). The lottery determines the category for which the mayor's post will be reserved, such as general, women, SC, ST, and OBC categories.
Last time, the mayor was of the General category. Under the rotation system, the mayor's post cannot remain in the General category, which was the case last time. According to the rotation system, this time the mayor's post will not be open for the General category.
This time, the lottery will be drawn from one of the following categories:
- SC (Woman/Man)
- OBC (Woman/Man)
- ST (Woman/Man)
If the mayor's post is reserved for the SC or OBC category, the Mahayuti alliance is well placed. Both the BJP and the Shinde-led Shiv Sena have corporators elected from these categories, making it relatively easy for the alliance to stake claim to the post.
ST category: The game-changer
The suspense centres on the Scheduled Tribe (ST) category. Across Mumbai, there are only two ST-reserved corporator seats:
- Ward 53: Jitendra Valvi (Shiv Sena-UBT)
- Ward 121: Priyadarshini Thackeray (Shiv Sena-UBT)
Uddhav Thackeray's faction won both ST-reserved seats, while the Mahayuti does not have a single Scheduled Tribe corporator.
If the lottery reserves the mayor's post for the ST category, the political implications would be dramatic. Only candidates from the Shiv Sena (UBT) would be eligible to contest the mayoral election, effectively shutting the BJP and the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena out of the race despite their numerical majority in the House.
This is why Uddhav Thackeray said, "If it is God's will, our party will have the mayor." Because now everything hinges on the reservation lottery on January 22.
Also Read: Shinde's Sena on course to secure Ulhasnagar mayor's post as two VBA corporators extend support
Also Read: When will Mumbai get its mayor? Reservation lottery to be held on Thursday
