Bihar Elections 2025: How exit polls fared in the past four assembly polls

With the conclusion of the second phase of polling in Bihar, the exit poll results will be released on Tuesday. According to the guidelines laid by the Election Commission of India (ECI), the exit poll results can only be declared after 6.30 pm once the polling concludes. Once released, the exit poll results will help in getting a fair idea of which coalition – the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) or the Mahagathbandhan – is winning the battle of Bihar. However, it must be noted that exit poll predictions have often gone wrong. 

What exit polls predicted in 2020? 

For instance, in the Bihar 2020 Assembly elections, many exit polls gave an edge to the Mahagathbandhan, which included the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), the Congress, and the Left parties. On the other hand, the NDA included the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Janata Dal United (JDU), the Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) and the Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM).

The RJD had emerged as the largest party with 75 seats, followed by the BJP, which won 74 seats. The JDU won 43 seats, while the Congress bagged 19 Assembly constituencies. Meanwhile, the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), which contested 137 seats, won just one constituency. The Communist Party of India (Marxist–Leninist), the Communist Party of India (CPI), and the Communist Party of India (Marxist) won 12, two, and two seats, respectively.

What did exit polls predict in 2015?

In the 2015 Bihar elections, the exit polls gave a fractured verdict. While some predicted a victory for the NDA, many gave an edge to the Mahagathbandhan. At that time, the NDA included the BJP, the LJP, Rashtriya Lok Party (RLM) and HAM (Secular). Meanwhile, the JDU was a member of the Mahagathbandhan in 2015. The Mahagathbandhan had received a clear mandate, with the RJD and the JDU winning 80 and 71 seats, respectively. The Congress won 27 seats, while the BJP bagged 53 seats. 

What did exit polls predict in 2010?

In the 2010 Bihar elections, exit polls predicted an NDA victory but underestimated the Nitish wave. The BJP and the JDU were part of the NDA, while the LJP contested the elections in an alliance with the RJD. But once the results were declared, the JDU won 115 seats, the BJP 91, the RJD 22, the Congress four and the LJP three. 

What did exit polls predict in 2005?

In the October 2005 Bihar polls, the exit polls had predicted a victory for the NDA, with most of them giving 120 to 130 seats to the alliance. While they predicted that the RJD+ would get somewhere between 90 and 100 seats. But the JDU and the BJP won 88 and 55 seats, respectively, while the RJD bagged 54 seats. On the other hand, the LJP and the Congress had bagged 10 and nine seats, respectively.