On January 3, 2026, the US military executed an operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro on charges of drug trafficking. While this event might seem like a distant issue, geopolitical analysts believe it could have far-reaching consequences, particularly for Russia and China. This bold action raises important questions: Could this inspire Russia to escalate its offensive in Ukraine or give China the push it needs to take more aggressive steps regarding Taiwan?
US’ strikes in Venezuela could set dangerous precident?
The capture of Maduro has rattled international relations, especially in countries that share tense relationships with the US. The attack has been criticised by many as a violation of international law. However, for some, this move might signal a shift in the global order, where the US can take decisive military action against sovereign nations without facing severe repercussions.
In Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin has long sought to reassert Russian control over former Soviet territories, with Ukraine being the primary focus.
Since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Putin has justified his actions by claiming to "denazify" the country, a narrative that many in the international community have seen as a thin cover for Russian imperial ambitions.
Now, with the US setting a precedent for violating sovereignty in Venezuela, some believe Putin might feel justified to intensify his efforts in Ukraine, potentially moving toward more extreme military tactics.
Zelenskyy’s wry remark
Shortly after the US military operation, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy gave a brief but telling remark, "If you can do this with dictators, so easily, then the United States knows what needs to be done next." Though Zelenskyy was not explicitly calling for US action against Putin, the implication was clear, If the US can act with such decisiveness in Venezuela, why not in Russia?
China’s perspective: A chance to strengthen its global position?
While Russia may seek to escalate in Ukraine, China is watching the US attack on Venezuela closely. President Xi Jinping has long maintained China's claim over Taiwan, viewing the island as a part of China despite Taiwan’s desire to remain a democratic, independent nation. The US strike on Venezuela opens a new chapter in how China might approach its ambitions.
Analysts note that China might now feel it has a stronger position to push back against the US in global territorial disputes. William Yang, an analyst at the International Crisis Group, points out, "Washington's consistent arguments are always that Chinese actions violate international law, but they are now damaging that."
With the US flouting international norms in Venezuela, China could see this as an opportunity to further justify its actions in the South China Sea, Tibet, and more importantly, Taiwan.
China could use this moment to amplify its criticism of Washington and gain international sympathy, potentially strengthening its position on territorial disputes. Beijing has already shown frustration with US influence in the region, and now it could turn the Venezuelan situation into “cheap ammunition” to bolster its claims and enhance its global standing.
While China might be encouraged to push harder on territorial issues, experts agree that Taiwan remains an unlikely immediate target. Xi Jinping has long said that Taiwan must be reunified with China, but many analysts argue that China’s capability to execute such an operation is still limited. Shi Yinhong, a Professor of International Relations at Renmin University in Beijing, states that “Taking over Taiwan depends on China’s developing but still insufficient capability rather than what Trump did in a distant continent.”
What's next?
By treating Maduro as a target for capture, the US may have opened the door for other countries to justify actions that violate international law, particularly in Ukraine and Taiwan. For Putin, the capture of Maduro could provide a justification to ramp up his offensive in Ukraine, pushing the world into further instability. For Xi Jinping, it offers a chance to strengthen China’s territorial claims, particularly over Taiwan.
