Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present a record ninth consecutive budget on February 1, which is expected to include reform measures to shore up economic growth amid a volatile geopolitical situation. So far, she has presented eight consecutive budgets, including an interim budget in February 2024. Sitharaman was in 2019 appointed as India's first full-time woman finance minister when Prime Minister Modi won a decisive second term. After Modi came back to power in 2024 for the third time, Sitharaman continued to retain her finance portfolio. Ahead of that, let's have a look at some key numbers.
GDP Growth: The Economic Survey has projected a real GDP growth of 6.8 per cent to 7.2 per cent for FY27. This is a slight moderation from the 7.4 per cent estimated for the current fiscal (FY26), reflecting a steady growth amid a global uncertainty stance.
Fiscal Deficit: After targeting 4.4 per cent for FY26, the government is expected to aim for 4.3 per cent of GDP in FY27. Analysts are watching to see if the government shifts its primary fiscal anchor from the deficit percentage to the Debt-to-GDP ratio, with a long-term goal of 50 per cent by FY31.
Capex Outlay: Capital expenditure is expected to see a 10–15 per cent boost, potentially reaching Rs 12–12.5 trillion.
Sector Shifts: While roads and railways remain staples, watch for increased allocations in green energy (Green Hydrogen Mission), nuclear energy, and high-tech manufacturing (AI and robotics).
Credit rating: Japanese credit rating agency, Rating and Investment Information, Inc. (R&I), upgraded India's long-term sovereign credit rating to 'BBB+' from 'BBB', while retaining the 'Stable' outlook for the Indian economy.
Export hits record highs: India's total exports reached a record USD 825.3 billion in FY25 and USD 418.5 billion in the first half of FY26, driven by strong growth in services exports and sustained momentum in non-petroleum, non-gems and jewellery shipments.
Unemployment rate at 7-month low: India's unemployment rate for individuals aged 15 and above fell to a seven-month low of 4.7% in November 2025, down from 5.2% in October 2025. According to Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) data, this decline was driven by a drop in rural unemployment to 3.9% and a 6.5% rate in urban areas, signaling a stronger, stabilizing labor market.
S&P upgraded India from BBB- to BBB: Standard & Poor’s (S&P) Global Ratings upgraded India's long-term sovereign credit rating to ‘BBB’ from ‘BBB-’ and its short-term rating to ‘A-2’ from ‘A-3’, with a Stable Outlook. The rating upgrade is a significant affirmation of India’s economic trajectory and prudent fiscal management. This marks the country’s first sovereign upgrade by S&P in 18 years, the previous one being in 2007 when India was elevated to investment grade at BBB-. In May 2024, the agency revised its outlook on India from ‘Stable’ to ‘Positive’.
Repo rate cut by 125 basis points: The RBI has cut interest rates by 125 basis points since February 2025, bringing the repo rate down to 5.25% — a move that stands out at a time when India's economic growth remains strong.
Free Trade Agreement: FTA with Europe will strengthen India's manufacturing competitiveness, export resilience and strategic capacity. The FTA delivers unprecedented market access for more than 99 per cent of India's exports by trade value, while preserving policy space for sensitive sectors and reinforcing India's developmental priorities.
