Tamil Nadu elections 2026 - Caste arithmetic decoded: How micro-communities influence the state's seats

Chennai:

The polling for the 234-member Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly will be held in a single phase on April 23, and the counting of votes will be conducted on May 4, as per the schedule announced by the Election Commission of India (ECI). The results for the Tamil Nadu elections will be declared on the same day when counting of votes will be held for West Bengal, Kerala, Assam, and the union territory (UT) of Puducherry. 

At present, INDIA bloc led by Chief Minister MK Stalin is in power in the coastal state. The INDIA bloc comprises the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), the Congress, the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), the Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK), the Manithaneya Makkal Katchi (MMK), the Communist Party of India (CPI), the Communist Party of India (Marxist), and other smaller parties. 

The alliance is expected to face a formidable challenge from the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which consists the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), the Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK), the Tamil Maanila Congress (Moopanar), and other smaller parties.

The caste arithmetic in Tamil Nadu

The politics of Tamil Nadu has been influenced by four primary geographical regions and the dominant caste clusters within them. These are Northern Region (Tondaimandalam), Kongu Nadu (Western Tamil Nadu), Southern Region (Pandya Nadu), and the Cauvery Delta (Central Region). These four regions are predominately dominated by different parties and alliances. For instance, the Kongu Nadu region has been considered a bastion of the NDA, while the DMK-led alliance has dominated the Cauvery Delta. 

As the political battle continues to intensify in Tamil Nadu, let's take a look at these regions and which parties and alliances have they backed over the years.

Kongu Nadu (Western Tamil Nadu)

Traditionally, this region has backed the NDA over the years. In the previous elections held in 2021, the alliance won more than 70 per cent of its constituencies here. In Dharmapuri, the DMK-led alliance was decimated and the NDA achieved a clean sweep, winning all five seats. Similarly, the NDA also formed well in the Salem region, winning 10 of the 11 seats there.

The alliance's performance was also exceptional in Erode where it won five of the eight seats, and also in Tiruppur where it bagged five of the eight seats.

Cauvery Delta (Central Region)

While NDA has been strong in Kongu Nadu, the Cauvery Delta region has been dominated by the DMK+. This region consists of around 41 assembly constituencies, and in the 2021 Tamil Nadu elections, the NDA was decimated completely here after it won just four seats. With its performance in the 2021 polls, the DMK+ once again stamped its authority in the Cauvery Delta region, which is called the "Rice Bowl" of the state.

Talking further about this region, the Cauvery Delta has five key districts: Thanjavur, Thiruvarur, Nagapattinam, Mayiladuthurai, and Tiruchirappalli. In Thanjavur, the Mukkulathors (specifically Kallars) dominate the district. It is worth noting that the Dalits have a strong presence across the entire Cauvery Delta. 

Northern Region (Tondaimandalam)

The Northern Region (Tondaimandalam) is the heartland of the Vanniyars, who are classified as a Most Backward Caste (MBC). The key districts here are Kanchipuram, Chengalpattu, Vellore, Ranipet, Tirupathur, Tiruvannamalai, Viluppuram, and Cuddalore.

Analysts point out that the PMK has strong influence in the region, particularly among the Vanniyars, which is expected to strengthen the NDA. However, they also note that the Dalit community (Adi Dravidar) back the VCK, which is expected to assist the INDIA bloc. Thus, this region is poised for an intense battle between the two alliances.  

Southern Region (Pandya Nadu)

The key districts in Southern Region (Pandya Nadu) are Madurai, Theni, Dindigul, Sivaganga, Ramanathapuram, Virudhunagar, Tirunelveli, and Tenkasi. It is mainly dominated by the Mukkulathors (collectively known as Thevars, comprising the Kallar, Maravar, and Agamudayar sub-sects). 

Thanks to Jayalalithaa and Sasikala, the Thevars have backed the AIADMK. The BJP has also some presence in this region, and it had won the Nagercoil and Tirunelveli seats in the 2021 assembly polls. But analysts say that the presence of the Devendra Kula Vellalars (SC community) can also play a key role on which party or alliance will eventually do well in the Southern Region (Pandya Nadu) of Tamil Nadu.  

The 2021 assembly polls

The DMK+ had swept the 2021 assembly polls in Tamil Nadu. The DMK and the Congress had won 133 and 18 seats, respectively. The alliance had won 80 per cent of the urban centres. It had also received 45.38 per cent votes, with the DMK getting 37.70 per cent.

Talking about the NDA, the alliance won 75 seats in total. The AIADMK, BJP and the PMK won 66, four and five seats, respectively. In urban centres, it had won just 10 of the 50 seats. In total, the alliance polled nearly 39.71 per cent of the total votes, with the AIADMK getting 33.29 per cent votes. 

The total difference of votes between the NDA and the DMK+ was 26.18 lakh (5.50 per cent of votes).