Most exit polls for the Kerala Assembly Elections 2026 indicate a clear edge for the United Democratic Front (UDF), led by the Congress, after 10 years, dethroning the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF).
What does the exit poll predict for Kerala?
Several pollsters have projected a comfortable majority for the UDF. According to the Matrize Exit Poll, the UDF is likely to win 70-75 seats in the 140-member Assembly, while the LDF may secure 60-65 seats. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), is projected to win 3-5 seats, with 2-4 seats likely going to others or independents.
Other agencies have also indicated a strong showing for the UDF. People Pulse projected 75-85 seats for the alliance, while Axis My India estimated up to 95 seats. Poll Mantra projected the UDF tally could go as high as 92 seats, while Chanakya Strategies and P Marq UDF can get around 80 and 79 seats, respectively.
Notably, the Kerala assembly has 140 seats with the magic mark being 71.
Who is best choice for CM post in Kerala?
If these projections translate into actual results, the Congress-led UDF could unseat the LDF government led by Pinarayi Vijayan after a decade in power.
Pollsters suggest that the race for the top post includes leaders across parties, including incumbent CM Vijayan. However, a UDF victory would place Congress leaders at the forefront, notably KC Venugopal and V D Satheesan.
According to the Poll Mantra exit poll, Venugopal has had the highest impact on voters over the past 60 days, with 21.4%, followed by Satheesan at 16.2%. However, in terms of chief ministerial preference, Satheesan leads with 21.2%, while Venugopal follows with 17.8%.
Notably, the polling for the 140-member Kerala assembly was held on April 9. Results of assembly elections in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Puducherry, and Kerala will be announced on May 4.
Also Read: Matrize Exit Poll predicts clear majority for Congress-led UDF in Kerala in tough fight with LDF
Also Read: Kerala Exit Polls 2026: Matrize projects 3-5 seats for BJP-led NDA with vote share of 13.40%
