With a place in the World Test Championship (WTC) final up for grabs, the Indian team will look at the upcoming Border-Gavaskar Trophy as a significant step in the pursuit of a place in the final. While the task is easier for the Aussies as they need only a draw, it is Rohit Sharma’s men who need certain mathematical equations to go their way if they are to reach the final of the WTC in coming June.
If Sri Lanka win both their Tests in New Zealand, India would need to win at least three of the four Tests against Australia to stay clear of Sri Lanka's 61.11%. But if Sri Lanka manage to win only at most one of the two games, all India needs is a series win by any margin or a 2-2 draw. If the Border-Gavaskar trophy ends in a 1-1 stalemate, India will end with 55.09% and South Africa can pip them if they beat West Indies 2-0 (55.56%) and so does Sri Lanka if they win 2-0 (61.11%) or 1-0 (55.56%) in New Zealand.
Australia already have one foot in the final at the Oval having lost just one Test in the current iteration of the WTC. A draw in one of the four Tests in India is enough for Australia to seal their spot. The only mathematical possibility of them not making it is if they lose 4-0 to India and Sri Lanka win 2-0 in New Zealand.
If Sri Lanka win their series 2-0 against New Zealand, they will stand an opportunity to make the final of WTC. The defending WTC champions New Zealand have been in poor form and have not won a series since beating India in Southampton in 2021. If Sri Lanka does win 2-0, they get to 61.11% and the only way they could be eliminated is if India beat Australia by a 3-0 or 3-1 margin. However, if they manage to win only 1-0, they can finish only on 55.56% which can be surpassed by both Australia and India, as well as equalled by South Africa.
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South Africa were sitting comfortably at the top of the points table following their innings win at Lord's last July but poor batting performances in the next five Tests has put them in a spot. The best they can finish is 55.56% if they beat West Indies 2-0 at home, which would be lower than Australia who would finish on 59.65% even if they get whitewashed 0-4 by India. For South Africa to qualify, they would need India to lose to Australia or the series to end in a 1-1 draw and then Sri Lanka not to win more than one Test in New Zealand.
The above scenarios are taken into consideration if no points are deducted for slow overate.