New Delhi: Uttar Pradesh has always played the pivotal role in deciding the discourse of national politics in India. The state has the distinction of sending the largest number of Lok Sabha representatives in Indian parliament.
If Narendra Modi created history by leading the BJP to a clear majority in 2014 general elections then he owed it to his party's sterling performance in UP.
Impressed with the persona and promises of a confident Modi, the people of India’s most populous state threw their weight behind the BJP’s PM candidate and handed over his alliance 73 out of 80 Lok Sabha seats.
For the first time in last 30 years of India’s parliamentary history, a government was formed at the Centre which had a clear majority in the lower house of parliament i.e. Lok Sabha.
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The same Uttar Pradesh will be going to Assembly polls next year. The tenure of the present Assembly expires in March 2017. However, there are speculations that the Assembly elections may be preponed to the end of this year i.e. December 2016.
The results of forthcoming UP Assembly elections will set the agenda for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi will go to the people to renew his mandate. The results will also give a hint of things to come in the next general elections.
Needless to say that the issues in an Assembly elections are entirely different compared to the Lok Sabha elections. However, the outcome of these elections will give an idea of whether the Modi wave, riding on which the BJP swept the state in 2014 general elections, is still blowing with same intensity in the state or has become a thing of the past now.
Therefore, from the perspective of national politics, UP Assembly elections will be the semi-finals before the crucial finale of 2019.
Read Also: Can old war horse Sheila Dikshit, as Brahmin face, work wonders for Congress in UP?
All the leading contenders – from the ruling Samajwadi Party to Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Narendra Modi’s BJP to Congress of Sonia and Rahul Gandhi are treating the forthcoming electoral battle in the state as a do-or-die contest and are not leaving anything to chance.
The question is – which party has the advantage, as on today, under the existing political realities in the state.
Let’s try to understand where the different contenders of power stand in UP today:
Clean image of CM Akhilesh Yadav likely to benefit the ruling Samajwadi Party
As it normally happens, the ruling parties always run the risk of facing anti-incumbency sentiments of the electorate. Therefore, after ruling Uttar Pradesh for 5 long years, the Akhilesh Yadav-led government will also have to face a certain amount of anti-incumbency.
What will be the degree of this anti-incumbency and whether it will be strong enough to make a difference remains to be seen.
If there is one area which has proved to be the biggest headache for SP government then it is the law and order front. In fact, it has proved to be the Achilles’ heel of Akhilesh Yadav-led government.
From Muzaffarnagar riots to Mathura violence, political opponents have accused the Akhilesh government of complete failure in discharging its responsibilities. The ruling party has also been accused of extending political patronage to criminals in the state besides favouring police officers of a particular caste in field postings of station house officers (SHO) and circle officers (CO). Political opponents of Akhilesh Yadav point out that in the four years of SP govt, 10 Director General of Police (DGP) led the police force and it did no good to the morale of the police personnel.
On the political front, the party is facing internal problems with deep fissures surfacing within Mulayam Singh Yadav's family itself. First, it was the homecoming of Amar Singh that divided the family and after that the party’s merger with mafia don Mukhtar Ansari’s Qaumi Ekta Dal (QED), at the behest of Akhilesh’s uncle Shivpal Yadav despite opposition from the UP CM, made the rumblings public.
However, if there is one factor that goes in favour of the SP government then it is the clean image of the Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav. Even his political opponents point out that the personal integrity of Akhilesh Yadav is beyond doubt. When he took over the reins of power in the state in 2012, he was termed as a political greenhorn who had to prove himself as an effective CM of a large state like UP.
Political observers in the state point out that, to be fair to Akhilesh Yadav, he has tried his best to take the state forward on the path of development. He initiated ambitious projects in the infrastructure sector like Agra-Lucknow Expressway, Lucknow Metro Rail and the proposed Lucknow-Ballia Purvanchal Expressway.
His other initiatives include the development of Lucknow IT city by HCL, Trans Ganga City in Kanpur and Saraswati Hitech City in Allahabad among many other similar projects. He is also trying his best to connect all the district headquarters with four lane roads.
That Akhilesh has got a mind of his own became unambiguously clear when he single-handedly vetoed the merger of QED with SP. He put his foot down despite the fact that the merger had the blessings of none other than Mulayam Singh Yadav himself.
The very fact that the party had to finally bow to the wishes of Akhilesh in this matter proves that the UP CM is no longer willing to take the dictation from anybody and that includes party supremo Mulayam Singh as well.
Akhilesh Yadav’s principled stand of maintaining a distance from tainted personalities like Mukhtar Ansari has won him accolades even from his political opponents.
His clean image is the biggest USP for the Samajwadi Party in the upcoming elections and it is likely to benefit the party offsetting some of the negative factors.
If the Muslim-Yadav (MY) equation that Mulayam Singh so carefully cultivated right from the BJP’s Ram Janmabhoomi agitation days remains intact then the Samajwadi Party under the leadership of Akhilesh Yadav will remain a force to reckon with in upcoming Assembly elections.
BSP supremo Mayawati had the initial edge but recent desertions have weakened the party
Till a month ago, BSP supremo Mayawati was believed to be leading the race for next UP Chief Minister. The anti-incumbency against Akhilesh government, primarily on account of deteriorating law and order, was supposed to have brightened the chances of Mayawati making a comeback in the upcoming Assembly elections.
However, recent desertions of committed party leaders – Swami Prasad Maurya and R K Chaudhary - appear to have queered the pitch for the BSP supremo.
Swami Prasad Maurya belongs to the Kushwaha community that constitutes around 8 % of the electorate. He was the leader of opposition in the present Assembly before he quit the party. His revolt ahead of Assembly elections will weaken the BSP’s standing among Kushwaha’s community.
Similarly, the resignation of RK Chaudhary, the tallest Pasi leader of the state and one of the founders of the BSP, just ahead of Assembly polls has also come as a rude shock for Mayawati. Chaudhary’s desertion will have an impact on BSP’s support base among the pasi community which constitutes around 16% of the 21% Dalit voters in the state.
Reports emanating from Lucknow suggest that there is a definite sense of unease among the OBC and non-Jatav SC leaders of the BSP regarding seat distribution in the forthcoming Assembly elections. The reason being that Mayawati is reportedly planning to field forward caste candidates, especially Brahmins, in large numbers in the upcoming elections. She is believed to be planning to focus on the Dalit -Brahmin-Muslim combination in ticket distribution and it has created a sense of insecurity among OBC and non-Jatav SC leaders of the party who fear that they will be denied tickets to accommodate forward caste leaders.
The problem for Mayawati is that if the fissure within the Dalit community continues to deepen then it will reduce her appeal among Muslims who will prefer to go with a candidate with real chances of defeating BJP nominees. Not only that, even Brahmins may think twice before putting their weight behind BSP’s Brahmin candidates if they are not seen as winning candidates in their respective constituencies.
As mentioned earlier, political observers point out that till a month ago, BSP was leading at number 1 position with Samajwadi Party following it at number 2. However, according to these political commentators, things have changed drastically and BSP’s fortunes have taken a beating in last one month after the back-to-back resignations of Maurya and Chaudhary .
Lack of a local credible face proving to be the biggest handicap for BJP
It’s the BJP which has the highest stake in these elections. After winning a massive 73 out of 80 parliamentary seats in 2014, the BJP has a daunting task of repeating the same performance in the Assembly elections.
The problem for the saffron party is that while the BJP had the charismatic face of Narendra Modi to rely upon in 2014 parliamentary elections, the party is struggling to find a credible face as CM candidate in the upcoming Assembly elections.
There is not a single leader in the state BJP who is acceptable to all factions of the local unit, forget different castes of the state. Upper castes and Banias form the core of BJP’s support base but the party owes its success in the state to the OBCs of the state. Whenever the OBCs joined hands with the upper caste voters of the state, the party has emerged victorious.
In 2014 general elections, it was a combination of upper castes, OBCs and even a significant chunk of Dalit voters which produced unprecedented results for the BJP in the state. Modi’s charismatic larger-than-life positioning had united all the society, minus Muslims, that gave the party 73 out of 80 seats.
The party wants to project a Modi-like magnet as CM candidate who could attract different sections of the society but there is nobody in the state unit of BJP who could be even anywhere close to Modi.
The list of claimants for CM candidate, however, is very long and they are all pushing their case very hard but there is no consensus on any single name in the party. The party fears that if it declares a forward caste CM candidate then it may annoy its OBC and SC support voters and vice-versa. That’s why the party is hesitating in announcing its CM candidate.
Some of the political commentators point out that the best bet for the BJP as CM candidate in these elections could be Rajnath Singh who is believed to have the persona and political experience to unite different factions of the state. However, Singh is not willing to move over to the state politics. Under these circumstances, the party is not sure whom to project as CM candidate.
Coming to caste equations, the BJP is desperate to repeat its 2014 performance and is trying hard to make inroads into different castes of OBC and SC groups e.g. Saini, Kurmi, Koeri, Kushwaha, Rajbhar, Nishad , Lodh etc.
If the party succeeds in bringing these castes under its fold then the combination of its traditional voters and these groups has the potential of catapulting the party to numero uno position in the state Assembly.
With an eye on Kurmi votes, the party has inducted Anupriya Patel into council of ministers at the Centre. Similarly, with an eye on Pasi votes, the party has inducted Krishna Raj in Modi cabinet. The induction of Anupriya and Krishna has underlined the importance that the party is giving to the eastern UP. PM Modi himself is from Varanasi, Anupriya represents the adjoining Mirzapur in the Lok Sabha while Mahendra Nath Pandey, the Brahmin leader, represents another adjoining constituency Chandauli .
Even Priyanka may not be able to revive the fortunes of Congress
If media reports are to be believed, Prashant Kishore, the new strategist of Congress party, wants Priyanka to lead the Congress campaign in UP. He was initially pitching for her as the CM candidate but since the party is divided on the issue, he wants her to at least lead the election campaign of the party.
The question is - can Priyanka revive the fortunes of Congress party in UP?
Political observers are divided on this issue. Some of them point out that Congress can give its best performance under Priyanka while others are of the opinion that she is just being overhyped by media.
“People forget that Priyanka had campaigned extensively outside Amethi and Raebareli both in the 2014 general elections and the 2012 Assembly elections but she could not change the fortunes of Congress in these elections. How can she make a difference in 2017?” asked a senior political commentator.
Political observers also doubt if the Congress party would actually decide to contest elections under her leadership because it will also indicate that the party has conceded the fact that Rahul Gandhi has proved ineffective as the leader. Will the party take that risk?
Political experts point out that the Congress is in a hopeless situation today because the party is left with no reliable vote-bank worth the name in the state. The Congress, in its heydays, relied on Brahmin-Dalit-Muslim combination for its electoral victories in the state.
The Congress lost Dalit votes slowly to BSP after Kanshi Ram founded the party in 1984. It lost the Brahmin votes to BJP after the party launched the Ram Janmabhoomi agitation in 1989.
The party lost Muslim votes 1986 onwards when Rajiv Gandhi got the locks of Ramjanmabhoomi-Bari structure opened to placate Hindus who were feeling agitated over his government’s decision to overrule Supreme Court’s order in Shah Bano case.
Mulayam Singh became the messiah for Muslims after he ordered firing on the Kar Sevaks in 1990. Muslims shifted their allegiance, en masse, to Mulayam Singh Yadav’s party and the Congress has failed to recover its lost ground among Muslims till this date.
The Congress, therefore, has no loyal vote bank left in the state today and the party can’t even dream of emerging as a force to reckon with in the state.
“ Forget Priyanka, even the combined strength of Priyanka and Rahul can’t revive the party in the state. The party has no chance of winning more than 40 seats in the upcoming Assembly elections," asserted a senior political commentator.
As of today, it can be safely said that Mayawati is losing the early edge that she had while the BJP is grappling with the challenge of finding a credible CM candidate. The Congress is in a hopeless condition, with or without Priyanka.
As far as the ruling Samajwadi Party is concerned, it appears to have a slight edge, as of today, over its opponents primarily because it has a CM who has got a clean image among the electorate.
However, these are early days and elections are at least 6 months away, even if it’s going to take place in December. And as we say, six months is a long time in politics.
