Holi not so happy for Congress as Jyotiraditya Scindia severs 18-year ties, looks at BJP
Holi is the festival of colours, joy and happiness. The word happiness is ideally meant in a universal sense, but in Indian politics, this Holi did not bring joy to all. In the dock was Congress-led government in Madhya Pradesh with Chief Minister Kamal Nath at the helm. Kamal Nath has a reputation of being a shrewd politician but even he was perhaps caught unawares as 22 Congress MLAs rebelled against his government under the aegis of none other than Jyotiraditya Scindia, his own party colleague.
Jyotiraditya Scindia, member of Gwalior's erstwhile royal family was seen by many as a contender for chief ministerial post right when Congress won Madhya Pradesh Assembly elections in 2018. Many called it a missed opportunity when party chose Kamal Nath as CM of Madhya Pradesh. Scindia's rebellion proved that whatever arrangements took place 15 months ago were not enough to douse his anger towards Kamal Nath.
On Tuesday (March 10) Scindia resigned from Congress, the party he was working 18 years for. Jyotiraditya's Scindia's father Madhavrao Scindia was a Congressman as well. But Jyotiraditya seemed to have decided that enough was enough.
Jyortiraditya did not rebel alone. He took with him 22 Congress MLAs which seriously undermined Kamal Nath government's majority, which was wafer thin to start with. Congress had 114 seats in 230 seat strong Madhya Pradesh assembly but a massive deduction of 22 has made the party unable to reach the magic figure required for majority which now stands at 104. Late on Tuesday, after it became clear that Jyotiraditya Scindia was not going to join BJP during the day, Kamal Nath emerged from the shadows and claimed that he was in touch with all rebel MLAs and that his government will win trust vote.
However, it seems very likely that his government will fall.
Domino Effect in other states?
In 2018, Congress' victory in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh elections had proved to be a major fillip to the party and appeared to finally stop BJP poll machine. It is exactly, for this reason, that fall of Madhya Pradesh is going to appear even more devastating than it might actually be in political sense.
There are voices from within BJP already that similar series of events will unfold in states where BJP opponents are in power. Most notably Maharashtra and Rajasthan.
Chhattisgarh looks safe from Congress' point of view as numbers favour the party strongly. Situation is not so distinct in Rajasthan and Maharashtra.
Just like in Madhya Pradesh, Congress has two poles of power within its Rajasthan unit namely Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot. Whereas in Maharashtra, BJP faced an unexpected 'dhobi pachhad' when its erstwhile ally Shiv Sena broke ties and formed a Maha Vikas Aaghadi with Congress and Nationalist Congress Party.
Will governments in these states topple? It is not certain yet but in Madhya Pradesh where it has all started, Holi brought little cheer to Kamal Nath and Congress.
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