US President Donald Trump on Monday issued a stark warning to Mexico threatening a 5 percent tariff on Mexican goods if the country does not “IMMEDIATELY” deliver additional water for US farmers. On his social-media platform, Trump wrote that Mexico has failed to honour the longstanding water-sharing agreement, saying the delay is severely harming “our beautiful Texas crops and livestock.”
He demanded that Mexico release 200,000 acre-feet of water before December 31, adding that “the rest must come soon after.”
Trump added, “The longer Mexico takes to release the water, the more our farmers are hurt.”
What is the Treaty dispute?
According to Trump, Mexico currently owes the US more than 800,000 acre-feet of water due to “five years” of water-treaty violations, a deficit he called “a major setback” for US agriculture.
The dispute centers on the 1944 Water Treaty, which obligates Mexico to deliver a certain volume of water to the US over a five-year cycle. Critics and U.S. officials argue that repeated shortfalls have disrupted farming and ranching across parts of southern Texas.
US agriculture officials warn that the water shortage has already afflicted farms and livestock across Texas. The lack of reliable water deliveries under the treaty has forced many producers to cut irrigation, reduce crop yields and make costly adjustments with some even shutting down operations entirely.
In April 2025, the US had secured a short-term agreement from Mexico to increase water shipments from reservoir reserves and key tributaries, a temporary fix intended to alleviate immediate hardship for ranchers and farmers.
Mexico’s challenges
From Mexico’s perspective, the crisis is exacerbated by drought and broader water-management difficulties. Northern Mexico’s dry conditions, over-taxed aquifers and shrinking rainfall have strained the country’s capacity to meet treaty commitments, complicating efforts to deliver water to the US as required.
Experts say the structural water deficit in the region and long-term mismanagement make it increasingly difficult for Mexico to guarantee regular water deliveries even under international pressure.
