Islam tops global religious growth charts, adds 300 million followers in a decade | Factors behind the rise

The global Muslim population grew at a significantly faster pace than the rest of the world between 2010 and 2020, making Islam the fastest-growing major religion during the decade, according to a new report released by the Pew Research Center titled “How the Global Religious Landscape Changed From 2010 to 2020.”

Muslims accounted for 2 billion people globally by 2020, up from 1.7 billion in 2010, marking a 21% rise. In comparison, the overall global population grew by only 10% during the same period. As a result, the Muslim share of the world’s population increased from 24% to 26% over the decade.

Growth in every region, led by North America and sub-Saharan Africa

While Muslims remain a religious minority in most regions outside the Middle East and North Africa, their numbers have increased in every part of the world. The sharpest growth was recorded in North America, where the Muslim population rose by 52%, reaching 5.9 million in 2020. Sub-Saharan Africa followed with a 34% growth, taking its Muslim population to 369 million.

In the Asia-Pacific region, which continues to house the majority of the world’s Muslims, the proportion rose to 26% of the total population, up by 1.4 percentage points. Meanwhile, Muslims came to represent 33% of the population in sub-Saharan Africa (up 0.8 points) and 6% in Europe (up 0.7 points).

The only region where the Muslim population grew at a slower pace than the non-Muslim population was Latin America and the Caribbean. There, Muslims increased by just 6%, while the non-Muslim population rose by 10%.

High fertility rates and a younger population

Fertility is the most significant factor in Islam's global growth, the report notes. Muslim women have higher average fertility rates compared to followers of other religions. In Tanzania, for example, Muslim women had an average of 4.6 children per woman between 2010 and 2015—nearly one child more than the national average.

Muslims also tend to have a younger age distribution, meaning a larger proportion of the population is in or entering childbearing age. This demographic momentum has contributed to faster natural population growth.

Migration reshaping demographics

Migration has also played a crucial role in increasing Muslim populations in regions like North America and Europe. The United States and Canada saw Muslim populations rise by 52% during the decade. In Europe, countries like Sweden, Austria and Germany saw modest increases due to an influx of refugees, particularly from Syria.

Lebanon’s Muslim share grew significantly—by five percentage points—largely driven by an influx of Syrian refugees. Kazakhstan also recorded an eight-point increase in its Muslim population share, partly because of the departure of Christians. Conversely, Oman saw its Muslim share drop by eight percentage points, mainly because of an increase in non-Muslim migrant workers.

Subtle shifts in geographic concentration

The report also noted slight changes in the regional concentration of Muslims. Sub-Saharan Africa’s share of the global Muslim population increased by two percentage points, rising to 18%. Meanwhile, the Asia-Pacific region, which remains home to the largest share of Muslims, saw a two-point drop and now houses 59% of the global Muslim population.

Ten countries account for two-thirds of all Muslims

A large portion of the global Muslim population is concentrated in a few countries. As of 2020, roughly one-third of all Muslims lived in Indonesia, Pakistan, or India. Indonesia topped the list with an estimated 240 million Muslims, accounting for about 12% of the global Muslim population.

Overall, the 10 countries with the largest Muslim populations—nine of which are Muslim-majority nations—collectively housed 1.3 billion Muslims, or about 65% of the world’s total. India was the only non-Muslim-majority country among the top 10, with 213 million Muslims making up around 15% of its national population.

While no European country saw a five-point shift in the Muslim share of the population, several did witness moderate increases.

Population share shifted most in five countries

Pew identified five countries where the share of Muslims in the population changed by at least five percentage points. Take a look:

1. Kazakhstan saw the most significant increase (up 8 points), partly due to the decline in its Christian population.
2. Benin also recorded an 8-point rise, although the report notes that some sources suggest more modest growth.
3. Lebanon experienced a 5-point increase, largely attributed to an influx of Syrian Muslim refugees during the civil war.
4. Oman saw the largest decline (down 8 points), as large-scale immigration brought in non-Muslim populations. The share of foreign-born residents in Oman rose from 30% in 2010 to nearly 50% in 2020.
5. Tanzania experienced a 6-point decline, largely due to lower fertility rates among Muslim women compared to non-Muslims.

In Europe, modest growth linked to migration and birth rates

While no European country saw a five-point shift in the Muslim share of the population, several did witness moderate increases. Sweden saw a 4-point rise, Austria 3 points, and Germany 1 point—primarily due to immigration from Muslim-majority nations and higher-than-average fertility rates among Muslim families.

Also Read: How Hinduism held steady as the world's religious landscape shifted in past decade

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