The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) published today its annual assessment of the state of armaments, disarmament and international security. The 56th edition of the SIPRI Yearbook analyses 'the continuing deterioration of global security over the past year'.
Global state of nuclear arsenals
SIPRI's Yearbook 2025 warns against the continued intensive nuclear modernisation and growth of the world's nuclear arsenals, foreshadowing a new arms race.
"The era of reductions in the number of nuclear weapons in the world, which had lasted since the end of the Cold War, is coming to an end," said Hans M Kristensen, Associate Senior Fellow with SIPRI's Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme and Director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists (FAS). "Instead, we see a clear trend of growing nuclear arsenals, sharpened nuclear rhetoric and the abandonment of arms control agreements," he added.
Another warning made by the institute concerns the rise in the risk of nuclear conflicts breaking out as the growing role of AI in the decision-making process enhances the possibilities of miscommunication, misunderstanding or a technical accident happening.
India maintains a lead over Pakistan in the number of nuclear weapons
India is estimated as of January 2025 to have a stockpile of about 180 nuclear weapons, a small increase from the 172 warheads it had in 2024.
India and Pakistan continue to develop new types of nuclear weapon delivery systems, and both are pursuing the capability to deploy multiple warheads on ballistic missiles, says the report.
However, even if its number of nuclear warheads remains the same, Pakistan's development of several new delivery systems indicates the expansion of its nuclear arsenal in the coming decade.
China, the fastest-growing nuclear power
Although Pakistan remains the focus of India's nuclear deterrent, India appears to be placing growing emphasis on longer-range weapons capable of reaching targets throughout China, as the country's nuclear arsenal is growing faster than any other, by about 100 new warheads a year since 2023.
"China is increasing its nuclear force steadily," SIPRI Director Dan Smith said, adding that the country could reach 1,000 warheads within the next seven to eight years.
What is SIPRI?
SIPRI is an independent international institute based in Stockholm, Sweden, dedicated to research into conflicts and armament. It provides data, analysis and recommendations based on open source.