A series of recent political developments has significantly strengthened the National Democratic Alliance's (NDA) prospects of securing parliamentary approval for the Delimitation Bill during the upcoming Monsoon Session. The legislation, introduced by the government in April to facilitate the implementation of women's reservation, had earlier suffered a setback after the NDA fell short of the two-thirds majority required to pass the constitutional amendment.
With the political arithmetic now shifting in its favour, the ruling alliance is optimistic about reviving and pushing the bill through Parliament again.
A group of 20 Lok Sabha MPs from the Trinamool Congress (TMC) has reportedly decided to break away from the party and extend support to the NDA government.
If recognised as a separate faction, the move would increase the ruling alliance's strength in the Lok Sabha and revive its hopes of passing the Delimitation Bill and the Women's Reservation Bill, both of which require a two-thirds majority.
Rebel TMC MPs seek recognition
The development came after TMC MP Kakoli Ghosh Dastidar claimed that 20 party MPs had joined hands to form a separate group. According to her, a letter seeking recognition of the faction has already been submitted to Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla.
The rebel lawmakers later met at the residence of Union Minister Bhupender Yadav to discuss their future strategy and their decision to support the NDA.
Their support could prove crucial for the government, which fell short of the numbers required to pass the Constitution (One Hundred and Thirty-First Amendment) Bill, 2026, commonly known as the Delimitation Bill. The legislation proposes redrawing parliamentary constituencies on the basis of the 2011 Census.
The government is now expected to bring the bill back during the Monsoon Session, scheduled to begin in the third week of July.
Numbers begin to shift in NDA's favour
The Lok Sabha has a sanctioned strength of 543 members. However, three seats are currently vacant - Basirhat, Shillong, and Nowgong. Two vacancies arose following the deaths of sitting MPs, while the Nowgong seat became vacant after Pradyut Bordoloi joined the BJP.
As a result, the effective strength of the House stands reduced, bringing the two-thirds majority requirement down to 360 votes.
At present, the NDA enjoys the support of 293 MPs. If the Speaker recognises the breakaway TMC group and no legal hurdles arise, the alliance's strength would rise by another 20 members.
There is also speculation that the DMK could offer issue-based support to the government. Political observers point to growing tensions between the Congress and the DMK, particularly after Congress reportedly distanced itself from the party and extended support to Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK). If the DMK's 22 Lok Sabha MPs back the government on the proposed legislation, the NDA's numbers would rise further.
Path to two-thirds majority
During voting on the constitutional amendment bill in April, the government secured support from 298 MPs, indicating that it received backing beyond its core alliance partners.
With support from the rebel TMC faction, possible issue-based backing from the DMK, and the likely split in the Shiv Sena (UBT), the NDA could potentially reach around 345 votes in the Lok Sabha. This would leave it only 15 votes short of the 360-member mark required for passage of a constitutional amendment.
The government may then look towards independent MPs, smaller parties, and possible cross-voting from opposition benches to bridge the remaining gap.
Meanwhile, the NDA's position in the Rajya Sabha could also strengthen. The TMC previously had 13 members in the Upper House, but one of them, Sukhendu Sekhar Roy, has resigned. Political circles suggest he could return to Parliament with BJP support.
There is also speculation that other dissatisfied TMC MPs could take a similar route, potentially helping the BJP expand its presence in the upper house.
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